An analyst known for tracking the post-quantitative-tightening thesis argues the crypto bear market is closing out the same way it set up in late 2019: the S&P 500 breaking to all-time highs while Bitcoin lagged badly behind. With the S&P at fresh records and Bitcoin roughly 36% off its own all-time high, he frames the current tape as a near-mirror of December 2019, when the S&P was in price discovery and BTC sat about 60% below its prior peak.
Why it matters
The thesis rests on two cycles aligning. Quantitative tightening in the US ended in December 2025 — only the second QT episode on record — and the analyst has spent the year tracking a post-QT normalization dip, arguing the 2019 analog is the right template. Layered on top is a business-cycle read: the PMI has just recorded its deepest contraction on record, which he maps to a record-setting suppression of the crypto cycle. The combination of QT ending and a PMI inflection toward expansion is, in his framework, the macro cocktail that preceded the last crypto bull market.
Market impact
The argument is not that Bitcoin is about to rip — it's that the worst of the drawdown phase may be over, with the analyst flagging a possible flush into the lower $60,000s as part of the post-QT pattern. The S&P-to-Bitcoin divergence is the visual he keeps returning to: in both December 2019 and today, traditional markets are euphoric while crypto looks broken relative to its own prior peak. If the analog holds, that gap is the kind of setup that resolves with crypto catching up, not equities rolling over. He stops short of calling a bottom date and explicitly notes four-year-cycle partisans may end up being right instead.
Frequently asked questions
-
What is the post-QT dip thesis?
It's the argument that after a US quantitative tightening cycle ends, risk assets typically dip further before recovering. The 2019 QT episode is the template — the S&P pushed to new highs while Bitcoin sat about 60% off its prior peak before the next crypto leg began.
-
When did the latest QT cycle end?
According to the analyst, US quantitative tightening ended in December 2025. It was only the second QT episode on record, with the first running from 2017 to July 2019.
-
How far is Bitcoin from its all-time high right now?
The analyst pegs Bitcoin at roughly 36% below its all-time high, compared with the S&P 500 breaking to fresh records. In December 2019, by contrast, Bitcoin was about 60% off its prior peak while the S&P was already in price discovery.
-
What role does the PMI play in this thesis?
The analyst maps the Purchasing Managers' Index to crypto cycles: an expanding PMI aligns with crypto bull markets, a contracting PMI with bear markets. The recent record-setting PMI contraction, in his framework, explains the depth of the current crypto drawdown — and a PMI inflection toward expansion would be the…
-
Is the analyst calling a Bitcoin bottom?
No. He explicitly says the four-year-cycle crowd may end up being right, and he flags a possible further flush into the lower $60,000s as part of the post-QT pattern. The claim is that the drawdown phase is ending, not that a precise bottom is in.
WatcherGuru
CoinTelegraph
Benjamin Cowen
Altcoin Daily
CryptoSlate
Glassnode
WuBlockchain