Crypto Bear Market Ending? S&P 500 Pattern Points to Yes!

A macro analyst is drawing a striking parallel between today's crypto market and late 2019 — the last time the Federal Reserve ended a quantitative tightening cycle. In December 2019, the S&P 500 was hitting all-time highs while Bitcoin sat roughly 60% below its own peak. Today, the S&P 500 is again in price discovery while Bitcoin trades approximately 40% off its all-time high. The analyst argues this near-identical setup is not coincidence but a structural echo of post-QT normalization dynamics.

The thesis rests on two converging signals: the end of the post-QT dip phase, and a business cycle PMI expansion that has historically coincided with crypto bull markets. The analyst notes that the record-setting PMI contraction of the past cycle produced a record-setting suppression of crypto prices — and that the coming expansion could catch many investors off guard.