Crypto IPOs look mature — until Bitcoin stalls and the revenue story falls apart.

Kaiko's latest analysis cuts through the 2025 IPO narrative: despite Circle's $1.05B raise and Bullish's $1.1B debut, crypto exchange revenues remain structurally tethered to Bitcoin price cycles. When BTC rallies, trading volumes surge, listings multiply, and Wall Street rewards the sector. When BTC stalls, fee income compresses fast and the 'neutral infrastructure' pitch loses its audience.

Gemini's trajectory is the clearest case study. The exchange targeted a $3.08B valuation in September 2025, only for a shareholder lawsuit to emerge in early 2026 alleging investors were misled — the stock had fallen more than 75% from its $28 IPO price, with a $282.5M net loss disclosed for the first half of 2025 alone.

The structural question Kaiko raises is the one every 2026 IPO buyer should be asking: can these exchanges generate durable earnings when Bitcoin isn't cooperating? So far, the…