CoinDesk
Denny Galindo, executive director of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Global Investment Office, says several indicators that historically marked the end of past crypto winters are now present, pointing to a potential shift into "crypto spring."
Digital assets have followed a four-year cycle across four completed cycles: a three-year bull market followed by a 12- to 14-month bear market. Historically, spring begins 17 months before the supply halving or 12 to 14 months from the prior peak, and September sits at exactly 17 months before the next halving. BitMEX's announced September closure fits the pattern of major exchange failures preceding spring, and Bitcoin difficulty has started to decline, another end-of-winter marker.
Not every sign has triggered. Bitcoin's drawdown of 53% from its peak is shallower than the 77% to 84% drops that defined previous winters, and the thermocap multiple has only fallen to 13 times versus the single-digit readings that ended prior cycles, according to Glassnode data as of June 30, 2026. Galindo notes the signals are observations, not predictions, and may prove false or premature.
Why it matters
Morgan Stanley's framework matters because it comes from a major wealth manager advising professional and institutional allocators, not an on-chain analyst. If the four-year cycle holds, the two open debates are whether Bitcoin makes a new high before the next halving, and whether AI has displaced crypto as the market's dominant disruptive-technology narrative.
Market impact
The bull case got added support this week: a golden cross triggered on Bitcoin's daily chart, a pattern associated with long-term bullish trends. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong added that the industry wins regulatory clarity whether or not the Senate passes the Clarity Act on Sept. 15. For allocators, the signal is to watch the remaining untriggered indicators, particularly a difficulty rebound and a 50% rally from the low, rather than waiting for a single confirmation.
Frequently asked questions
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What are the six signs a crypto winter is ending, per Morgan Stanley?
Cycle length at 17 months before the halving, major exchange failures, drawdowns of 77% to 84% from prior peaks, declining then rebounding Bitcoin difficulty, single-digit thermocap multiples, and a 50% rally from the low.
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How many of the six crypto spring indicators are currently present?
Several are present: the 17-month pre-halving window, BitMEX's announced closure, and declining Bitcoin difficulty. The 53% drawdown is shallower than historical norms and the thermocap multiple sits at 13x versus prior single-digit lows.
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Why does the four-year Bitcoin cycle matter for investors?
Each of four completed cycles included a three-year bull market followed by a 12- to 14-month bear market. The framework gives institutional allocators a structure for timing exposure across the cycle's four seasons.
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What is the thermocap multiple and why does it matter here?
It compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to the cumulative dollars ever paid to miners, valued at each coin's mined-time price. Prior crypto winters ended at single-digit multiples; this cycle it only declined to 13x per Glassnode.
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Will Bitcoin reach a new high before the next halving?
It is unsettled. Bitcoin did not surpass its prior cycle high before the halvings in the 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 cycles, but in the 2024 cycle it broke the 2021 high one month before the April 2024 halving, per Bloomberg data.
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