Manuel Bllye, a Dow Theory practitioner at thedowtheory.com, says his model has just flashed a bullish signal on Bitcoin after Ethereum confirmed Bitcoin's higher highs, a textbook Dow Theory trigger that flips the weight of probabilities toward the bulls.
Bllye previously called the October bearish signal that preceded Bitcoin's slide from above $100K down toward $60K. The reversal of that signal is what he and the host now lean on. The pair stress it is not a guarantee of new all-time highs, only that the environment is now tradable to the upside.
Why it matters
The Dow Theory read is built on confirmation between indices — in crypto terms, Bitcoin and Ethereum both needing to print higher highs and higher lows. That confirmation just arrived, with Ethereum validating Bitcoin's breakout above trendline resistance. The same model produced a bearish trigger in October before a roughly 40% drawdown, so the flip carries weight precisely because the prior call worked.
Supporting cross-asset reads are tilting the same way. The ratio of BlackRock's IBIT to the GLD gold ETF is rising off the lows, and the ratio of MicroStrategy (MSTR) to Bitcoin has broken above a horizontal resistance line, with the gap to its 200-day moving average narrowing — both consistent with a transition from risk-off back toward risk-on within crypto.
Market impact
The host still flags one clear invalidation level: a rejection from Bitcoin's weekly 21 EMA followed by a loss of the recent support range. If that gives way over the next several weeks, he says he will flip bearish. Until then, the path of least resistance sits to the upside, with the caveat that any advance is unlikely to be a straight line given the overhang of supply from a roughly 50% drawdown. Bllye adds that if either BTC or ETH pierces the bear-market lows, he becomes "the most bearish man in the world" on the spot — the model's hard stop on the other side.
Frequently asked questions
-
What Dow Theory signal just triggered on Bitcoin?
Manuel Bllye says Bitcoin and Ethereum both printed higher highs, with Ethereum confirming Bitcoin's breakout above trendline resistance — the textbook Dow Theory trigger that flips probabilities toward the bulls.
-
Why does this signal carry weight?
Bllye's Dow Theory model produced a bearish trigger in October last year, just before Bitcoin rolled over from above $100K and slid toward $60K. The reversal of that working call is what he and the host now lean on.
-
Does the bullish signal guarantee new all-time highs for Bitcoin?
No. Both Bllye and the host stress it is not a guarantee of new highs, only that the environment is tradable to the upside, with any advance unlikely to be a straight line given the supply overhang from a roughly 50% drawdown.
-
What would invalidate the bullish read?
A rejection from Bitcoin's weekly 21 EMA followed by a loss of the recent support range. The host says if that gives way over the next several weeks, he will flip bearish.
-
What supporting cross-asset reads are tilting bullish?
The ratio of BlackRock's IBIT to the GLD gold ETF is rising off the lows, and the MicroStrategy-to-Bitcoin ratio has broken above a horizontal resistance line with the gap to its 200-day moving average narrowing — both consistent with a return to risk-on.
CoinTelegraph
CoinDesk
TheBlock
Crypto News
WuBlockchain
Altcoin Daily
Glassnode
CryptoSlate