Crypto News
Ethereum is flashing the most oversold monthly RSI reading in its entire trading history, according to analyst Ash Crypto — a signal that has historically preceded major recoveries. ETH is currently down 70% from its all-time high and trading at price levels last seen four years ago, with the monthly RSI now more depressed than the lows recorded during both the 2018 and 2022 bear market bottoms.
Why it matters
The comparison to prior cycle bottoms carries weight. In the last major bear cycle, ETH fell 82% from its ATH before forming a durable base. With the current drawdown sitting at 70%, the structure suggests either a bottom is already in or the final leg lower is shallow relative to prior cycles. The Strait of Hormuz peace deal has added a macro tailwind, easing energy-market risk and lifting broader risk appetite — a combination that historically benefits high-beta assets like ETH.
Market impact
The confluence of an extreme oversold RSI, a multi-year price reset, and an improving macro backdrop is drawing attention to the sub-$2,000 ETH range as a potential generational entry zone. Traders watching the monthly close will be focused on whether ETH can reclaim and hold the $2,000 level as support — a failure to do so would extend the comparison to the 2018 bottom, which took several months to fully form.
Frequently asked questions
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How does ETH's current RSI compare to the 2018 and 2022 bear market lows?
The monthly RSI is currently more oversold than at either the 2018 or 2022 bear market bottoms, making this the most extreme oversold reading in Ethereum's entire trading history.
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How does the current ETH drawdown compare to the last bear cycle bottom?
In the previous bear cycle ETH fell 82% from its ATH before bottoming. The current drawdown stands at 70%, suggesting the floor may already be near or the remaining downside is limited relative to prior cycles.
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What role did the Hormuz peace deal play in ETH's price action?
The Strait of Hormuz peace deal reduced energy-market risk and improved broader macro sentiment, adding a tailwind for high-beta risk assets like ETH at a time when on-chain technicals were already signalling extreme oversold conditions.
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