Fed Seen Holding Rates Steady All Year as 77% Odds of Zero Cuts Hit

Frequently asked questions

1. What does the 77% no-cut probability mean?

   ▾

   CME FedWatch futures now imply a 77% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates unchanged through the rest of 2026, pricing zero cuts versus the start-of-year base case of multiple easings.

2. Why are markets repricing Fed cut expectations?

   ▾

   Sticky services inflation and a still-tight labour market have kept Chair Powell anchored in a higher-for-longer stance, pushing the first expected cut into 2027 and lifting the dollar across major peers.

3. How does a no-cut year affect crypto and risk assets?

   ▾

   A full year without cuts removes the liquidity tailwind bulls had priced for Q4, raises the discount rate on long-duration cash flows, and pressures crypto and high-beta tech hardest on the duration trade.

4. When is the next Fed meeting that could shift these odds?

   ▾

   The next FOMC meeting and the next CPI print are the two binary catalysts that can move the cut-probability curve, either reinforcing the higher-for-longer path or reopening the easing door.

5. Could the Fed still cut in 2026 if data weakens?

   ▾

   Yes, the 77% odds leave a roughly 23% probability of at least one cut, so a meaningful downside surprise on inflation or a labour-market break could still trigger easing before year-end.