Gemini lands a derivatives license and sets its sights on Kalshi and Polymarket!

Gemini has secured a derivatives license and is moving to enter the prediction market space, positioning itself as a direct competitor to Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchange's shares surged on the news, reflecting investor confidence in the strategic pivot.

Prediction markets have seen explosive growth over the past two years, with Polymarket processing billions in volume around major political and macro events. Gemini's regulatory footing — a derivatives license in hand — gives it a credible compliance edge that newer entrants have had to fight for.

For the broader market, a well-capitalised, regulated incumbent entering this space could accelerate institutional adoption of prediction markets as a legitimate financial instrument.