Gold breaks 200DMA for first time since 2023 — BTC ratio…

Gold has slipped below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, with prices now trading beneath $4,300 per ounce — a decline of more than 20% from January's record high of $5,600, officially placing the metal in bear market territory. The move follows a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report that pushed markets to price in a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike in December, which would lift the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%.

Why it matters

Gold's break below the 200DMA is a significant technical signal: it marks the end of a near-200% rally that ran from below $2,000 in October 2023 to the January peak, a surge largely fuelled by the debasement trade thesis — the bet that rising government debt and loose monetary policy would erode fiat purchasing power. That narrative is now under pressure from a resurgent U.S. Dollar Index, which has climbed back above 100, tightening global financial conditions and reducing liquidity across commodities and risk assets alike. Silver is also testing its own 200DMA near $67 per ounce, adding to the broad commodity stress picture.

Market impact

For Bitcoin bulls, the relative performance is the headline: the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio — measuring how many ounces of gold one BTC can buy — climbed 3% in the past 24 hours. The ratio remains roughly 70% below its December 2024 peak of approximately 41 ounces and was rejected at its own 200DMA last month ahead of Bitcoin's slide below $60,000, but it is holding above February lows. If gold's technical deterioration deepens while BTC stabilises, the rotation narrative from gold into Bitcoin as the preferred scarcity asset could gain fresh traction among macro-oriented investors.