Gold is trading near $4,000 and is down roughly 7-8% from its yearly open, which puts the 2026 drawdown in line with the 10-11% pullbacks seen at the same point of the midterm years 2018 and 2022, according to a video analysis published this week. The channel hosting the discussion framed the move as a midterm-year consolidation rather than a trend break, pointing to seasonality data going back to the late 1960s that puts the average gold bottom in early July of midterm years. The presenter is looking for a low to form somewhere between July and October before the metal resumes its longer-term uptrend.
Why it matters
The bull-market support band, defined by the 20-month simple moving average and the 21-month exponential moving average, currently sits around $3,824-$3,841. Gold has not touched that band since 2023, which is one reason the presenter expects any further selling to find buyers relatively quickly. The historical playbook, both 1970s and 2000s bull runs, shows gold struggling through US recessions but recovering faster than the S&P 500 once the dust settles, with the 2008-2009 cycle highlighted as the cleanest example of that relative-strength rotation.
Market impact
The recent S&P outperformance against gold is not viewed as a regime change; the 2025 tariff scare showed gold barely dipped and recovered quickly, which the channel cited as evidence of underlying bid. The bigger structural call is timing: a shallow stocks correction in June, a July rebound, then a larger drawdown into August-September, with gold bottoming somewhere inside that window and turning higher into 2027. If gold does tag the bull-market support band, that would be the first test of that level in three years and likely the trigger for the next leg of the bull market.
Frequently asked questions
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Where is gold trading right now according to the analysis?
Gold is trading near $4,000 and is down roughly 7-8% from its yearly open, putting the 2026 drawdown in line with the 10-11% pullbacks seen at the same point of the 2018 and 2022 midterm years.
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When does the analysis expect gold to bottom in 2026?
Seasonality data going back to the late 1960s puts the average gold bottom in early July of midterm years; the presenter is looking for a low to form somewhere between July and October before the next leg higher.
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What is the bull-market support band and where does it sit?
The bull-market support band uses the 20-month simple moving average and the 21-month exponential moving average, and currently sits around $3,824-$3,841. Gold has not tagged that band since 2023.
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How does the analysis frame gold versus the S&P 500?
The presenter argues gold struggles through US recessions but recovers faster than equities once the dust settles, citing 2008-2009 as the cleanest example where gold reclaimed prior highs roughly 18 months after the top while stocks took until 2013.
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Does the channel expect the gold bull market to be over?
No. The view is that the current move is a midterm-year consolidation within an ongoing bull market, with a bottom likely between July and October followed by a resumption of the uptrend into 2027 and potentially beyond.
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