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IBM CEO Arvind Krishna told CNBC's Mad Money on Thursday that quantum computing will begin generating meaningful revenue and profit by 2028 or 2029, framing the technology as a coming business rather than a pure research project. He added that by the end of the 2030s he expects roughly $1 trillion in cumulative value creation across the sector.
IBM is not alone in pushing toward commercialization. Alphabet, IonQ, Rigetti Computing and a wave of startups are racing to build machines capable of solving problems classical computers cannot tackle in reasonable time. In May, IBM announced a standalone quantum chip foundry backed by $1 billion from the U.S. Department of Commerce through the CHIPS incentive program and a matching $1 billion from IBM itself.
Why it matters
The revenue timeline matters more than the dollar figure. A 2028–2029 inflection point turns quantum from a science-budget line item into a procurement category, with new facilities, supply chains and operating environments that won't slot into today's AI data centers. Krishna cited concrete proof points: IBM has already used quantum machines to model material properties classical systems could not, with downstream applications in batteries, fusion research and drug discovery.
Market impact
Crypto is watching the same arc from a defensive angle. A sufficiently advanced quantum computer could theoretically break the elliptic-curve cryptography securing Bitcoin wallets and other blockchain networks, but most researchers say fault-tolerant quantum machines are still years away and that developers have time to deploy quantum-resistant upgrades. For now the read is simple: the commercial clock just started, but the encryption risk remains a 2030s problem, not a 2025 one.
Frequently asked questions
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When will quantum computing start generating real revenue?
IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said on CNBC's Mad Money that quantum will begin making a measurable contribution to IBM's revenue and profit by 2028 or 2029, and could create roughly $1 trillion in cumulative value across the sector by the end of the 2030s.
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Which companies are racing to commercialize quantum?
IBM, Alphabet, IonQ and Rigetti Computing are among the major players, alongside a wave of startups building hardware and software aimed at problems classical computers cannot solve in reasonable time.
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What is IBM building for quantum manufacturing?
In May IBM announced a standalone quantum chip foundry backed by $1 billion from the U.S. Department of Commerce through the CHIPS incentive program and a matching $1 billion commitment from IBM itself.
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Could a quantum computer break Bitcoin's encryption?
A sufficiently advanced quantum computer could theoretically crack the elliptic-curve cryptography securing Bitcoin wallets and other blockchain networks, but most researchers say fault-tolerant machines capable of that are still years away and developers are already working on quantum-resistant upgrades.
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How does quantum computing differ from AI infrastructure?
Quantum machines require entirely different hardware and operating environments and cannot simply be slotted into today's AI data centers, meaning the industry will need new facilities and supply chains as the technology matures.
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