Long-term Bitcoin holders now control a record 16.5 million BTC, the largest stockpile in the asset's history, and they are choosing to hold through drawdowns rather than distribute. Bitcoin is also defending its 200-week moving average, with the 300-week sitting roughly at $54,000, framing the next major support level.
Why it matters
The midterm-year pattern is intact. Bitcoin's average drawdown in midterm years lines up almost exactly with the current move, and history shows buying BTC in midterm years has delivered returns ranging from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of percent across the four prior cycles. That backdrop is now being reinforced by a parallel risk-on signal: the SpaceX IPO is reportedly four times oversubscribed, pulling fresh capital into US equities and lifting the broader market by more than $1 billion after the cancellation of scheduled strikes on Iran.
Ethereum is quietly building a supply squeeze of its own. Tom Lee is buying about 0.1% of total ETH supply every week, exchange balances sit near record lows, staking rates are at all-time highs, and the staking exit queue is at zero — all while price grinds at cycle lows. A broader Wall Street bid is also taking shape: NASDAQ and CME Group have folded Cardano into a new crypto index future alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Chainlink and other top-cap names, and analysts note ETF allocators are sizing positions more conservatively than crypto natives, which is helping high-quality alts hold their bids through volatility.
Market impact
If the midterm-year analogue holds, the technical tape is now set for a bounce — or, in a less generous read, a quick cascade into the 300-week moving average near $54,000 before a reversal. Short-term holders have been the marginal seller on this dip; long-term holders have done the opposite, accumulating through the weakness rather than distributing into it. That divergence is the cleanest cycle-bottom signature the market has printed in months, and combined with a still-hot SpaceX IPO, easing geopolitical risk, and an ETH supply drawing down toward structural scarcity, it is the setup the bull case has been waiting for.
Frequently asked questions
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How much Bitcoin do long-term holders control right now?
Long-term holders now control a record 16.5 million BTC, the largest stockpile in Bitcoin's history, and they are continuing to accumulate through the current drawdown rather than distribute into it.
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What is the next major support level for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is currently defending the 200-week moving average. The 300-week moving average sits roughly at $54,000 and is the next major support zone if the current level fails.
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Why are midterm years considered bullish for Bitcoin?
BTC's average drawdown in midterm years lines up almost exactly with the current move, and buying BTC in midterm years has delivered returns ranging from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of percent across all four prior cycles.
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What is happening with Ethereum's supply right now?
Ethereum exchange balances are near record lows, the staking rate is at an all-time high, and the staking exit queue is at zero. Tom Lee is buying roughly 0.1% of total ETH supply every week, building a structural supply squeeze at cycle-low prices.
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What did NASDAQ and CME just add to their crypto index future?
NASDAQ and CME Group launched a new crypto index future that includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Chainlink, Cardano and other top-cap names — a broadening of Wall Street crypto exposure beyond just the two majors.
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