Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Stay Profitable This Cycle
LTH-MVRV never fell below 1, unlike in prior bear-market cycle lows since at least 2015, leaving long-term holders above their aggregate cost basis.
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LTH-MVRV never fell below 1, unlike in prior bear-market cycle lows since at least 2015, leaving long-term holders above their aggregate cost basis.
The rally’s next test is whether buyers can absorb the largest concentration of long-term-holder coins and keep price above the zone.
The Senate's 49-50 cloture failure wiped out near-term regulatory upside just as 5% Treasury yields and $105 oil squeeze risk assets, putting Warsh's FOMC decision and the $70K 200-day average in…
Investors are still acquiring coins, but a break below the forming cluster would put $75K in focus; a full retrace to $60K would then be in play.
Long-term holders now take 47% of realized profit, down from 88% in August, easing one measure of overhead supply even as 1.07M BTC sits parked between $83K-$86K.
The cohort's larger share of supply versus 2022 makes holder behavior a stronger cycle signal and puts Bitcoin's available supply in focus.
The bullish read is tempered by long-term-holder distribution, making supply absorption the key test for Bitcoin's next phase.
Downside protection is gone while $5B in upside options sits exposed to whatever the Fed delivers, and long-term holders are now the only wall under $64,000.
Galaxy's aged-supply chart and Glassnode's long-term-holder loss data tell two halves of the same story, and the $69,000 short-term cost basis decides which half sticks.
Long-term holders realizing losses and short-term holders pocketing over $4M a day are creating overhead supply just as softer CPI lifted bitcoin back toward $65,000, with analysts warning the print…
The cycle's defining sell metric has rolled over for the first time, while BTC just posted its strongest reaction to a soft inflation print in weeks, a base is forming but spot follow-through is…
The RHODL Ratio hit 6.5, its second-highest reading ever, then rolled over while price stayed flat, a pattern that historically precedes major moves rather than collapses.
The $5.4B YTD ETF outflow was concentrated in a six-week MSTR-driven flush, not a structural exit, and 45% of long-term holder supply already sits at a loss, a level associated with prior cycle…
The seller profile is rotating in real time: spot ETFs keep bleeding while long-term holders flip from distribution to accumulation and smaller wallets absorb the other side of the trade.
The price rebound and the steady ETF bleed are happening at the same time, and on-chain signals say the cohort doing the real buying is the one that almost never sells.
The 30-day net position change has crossed positive after a stretch of distribution, with 50K-100K BTC of demand forming even as the largest whales stay neutral and BTC sits near $60,000.
The bid is hiding where the price action does not: spot ETFs keep bleeding while LTH wallets and broad accumulation cohorts step in, a split that has marked prior cycle floors.
The figure is the highest since the Covid-era unwind in March 2020, and the cohort's overhang supply is taking longer to resolve than previous drawdowns.
The print beats every prior bear-market bottom, yet long-term holders have continued to accumulate to a fresh all-time high of 14.8M coins, roughly 75% of supply.
K33 analysts say a record share of BTC supply is now sitting in long-term holder wallets, a pattern the firm argues has…