On-chain data shows the largest supply transfer of this Bitcoin cycle is happening right now: long-term holders — including Strategy, which added 53,000 BTC, and ETF vehicles classed as long-term holders absorbing another 16,800 BTC — collectively took in roughly 33,000 BTC over 30 days. At the same time, short-term holders (entities holding BTC for fewer than six months) panic-sold 290,000 BTC. That asymmetry is striking: patient, high-conviction capital is absorbing supply that nervous newcomers are throwing overboard.
Fidelity's head of macro offered a complementary macro read: Bitcoin has been unusually stable during the Iran conflict while gold and Treasuries — traditional safe havens — have been acting erratically, possibly because Gulf State sovereign funds are liquidating reserve assets for cash flow. That dynamic, he argues, may be accelerating the rotation of fast money out…