Macro data gauntlet tests Fed cut hopes as Kevin Warsh takes the helm

The week of May 25 brings a dense macro calendar that could reshape rate-cut expectations heading into the Fed's June meeting. PCE inflation, initial jobless claims, and housing data all land before the open on May 28, giving markets a simultaneous read on price pressures, labor resilience, and consumer demand. Prediction markets and the CME FedWatch tool currently price rates unchanged in June.

Kevin Warsh officially begins his first week as Federal Reserve Chair during this stretch, adding symbolic weight to a data window that will set the tone for his early tenure. Meanwhile, the ongoing Middle East conflict keeps energy prices in focus — any sustained move higher in oil could make softer inflation harder to hold and weigh on risk assets broadly.