Into the Cryptoverse walked through Bitcoin's monthly Heikin-Ashi candles this week, comparing the current setup against the 2014, 2018 and 2022 mid-term bear markets. The channel argues the recent rally off the lows — roughly 13.5% in April after an early-February swing low and higher lows in late March / early April — is structurally a counter-trend move, not the start of a new bull cycle. Heikin-Ashi candles, which average the open and close of the prior bar into the current bar's open and take the max of high/open/close as the new high, smooth out the noise that makes counter-trend rallies look like reversals on a standard chart.
Why it matters
In both 2018 and 2022, monthly Heikin-Ashi candles stayed red for the entire bear market even as the underlying chart printed sharp counter-trend rallies — Bitcoin rallied roughly 33% in April 2018 and still rolled over. The current April candle is green on a normal chart but the Heikin-Ashi view still shows long downside wicks and no sustained body flip, the pattern the channel flags as a strong-downtrend signature. The implied base case is a local top within the next week or two into the April 29 FOMC, followed by a rollover into May and a possible secondary low in June — a window the channel links to a potential Bank of Japan rate hike at its June meeting. Stock-market all-time highs in 2014 and late 2018, the host notes, did not stop either of those Bitcoin bear markets.
Market impact
The signal is conditional, not directional: a monthly Heikin-Ashi flip green that holds into June would be the first sign the channel's read is wrong, and 2014 is offered as a precedent where the counter-trend rally persisted that long before yielding a lower high. Drawdowns across altcoins have been steeper than Bitcoin's, and stablecoin dominance (USDT + USDC) is tracking the same breakout-retest pattern Bitcoin dominance printed earlier in the cycle — historically a risk-off tell. If the FOMC-week setup repeats 2018, expect a push toward the 200-day moving average into May 1-2, a sweep of the April high, then a multi-week fade.
Frequently asked questions
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What are Heikin-Ashi candles and why do they matter for Bitcoin?
Heikin-Ashi candles smooth price action by averaging the prior open and close into the new open and taking the max of high/open/close as the new high. Into the Cryptoverse uses them to filter out counter-trend rally noise that distorts standard monthly candles.
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How does the current Bitcoin setup compare to 2018 on Heikin-Ashi?
In 2018 monthly Heikin-Ashi candles stayed red for the entire bear market despite a roughly 33% April rally. The host reads today's still-red monthly Heikin-Ashi with long downside wicks as the same pattern repeating mid-cycle.
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What catalyst could break the current Bitcoin trend, per the channel?
The April 29 FOMC meeting is the near-term flag. A secondary window is the Bank of Japan's June meeting, which historically has sometimes coincided with a Bitcoin local low in midterm years.
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What would invalidate the bearish Heikin-Ashi read?
A monthly Heikin-Ashi candle flipping green and holding into June. The 2014 cycle is cited as the precedent where a counter-trend rally extended that long before ultimately producing a lower high rather than new all-time highs.
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What is stablecoin dominance signaling right now?
USDT plus USDC dominance is tracking the same breakout, back-test, and re-acceleration pattern that Bitcoin dominance printed earlier in the cycle — a structure the channel reads as a persistent risk-off bid into stablecoins.
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