Morgan Stanley sees SpaceX hitting $3.4T in annual revenue…

Morgan Stanley, the $2 trillion Wall Street giant, projects SpaceX could reach $3.4 trillion in annual revenue by 2040 — a forecast that would make the Elon Musk-led rocket and satellite company one of the largest revenue-generating enterprises in history.

Why it matters

A $3.4 trillion annual revenue target from a firm of Morgan Stanley's stature is not a speculative moonshot call — it's a structural thesis. SpaceX's revenue engine spans Starlink's global broadband subscriptions, commercial and government launch contracts, and a nascent point-to-point transportation business. Morgan Stanley's analysts have long argued that Starlink alone could command a subscriber base rivalling major telecoms, and that the launch market is structurally undersupplied relative to the satellite deployment pipeline coming online this decade.

Market impact

SpaceX remains privately held, but the forecast carries direct implications for investors tracking the company through secondary market vehicles and any future IPO pricing. A $3.4 trillion revenue run-rate by 2040 implies a valuation multiple that would dwarf most current tech comparables. For macro-focused investors, the call reinforces the broader thesis that space infrastructure is graduating from government-funded science to commercially scalable industry — a shift that is already attracting institutional capital at scale.