WuBlockchain
Adam Livingston ran a three-year stress test on MicroStrategy (MSTR) under a worst-case scenario: BTC falls to $26,611 by month six, mNAV drops below 0.50x, capital markets close, and the company is forced to sell BTC to service senior debt.
Under those assumptions, the claim ratio rises from 41.5% to 96.7%. Common equity BTC per share collapses from 138,161 sats to 7,884 sats, and MSTR's modeled share price bottoms at $1.01. Cash runs out in month nine, after which MSTR would need to sell roughly 115,727 BTC over three years to cover obligations. Even after that forced selling, the model ends with MSTR still holding 731,636 BTC at an mNAV of 1.40x.
Why it matters
Livingston's read is that the structural risk is dilution of common equity BTC per share, not an instant bankruptcy or "death spiral." Senior debtholders get paid first; common shareholders absorb the compression. The sats-per-share figure is the metric long-term MSTR bulls track as a proxy for treasury value per share, and a 94% compression would erase most of that premium even if the underlying BTC stack survives intact.
Market impact
The exercise frames MSTR as a leveraged BTC play with a specific failure mode: treasury value holds, equity holders get crushed. Any move that closes capital markets access while BTC is down becomes the trigger condition. Watch mNAV and senior debt covenants as the leading indicators.
Frequently asked questions
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What did the MSTR stress test actually model?
Adam Livingston modeled a three-year scenario where BTC falls to $26,611 by month six, mNAV drops below 0.50x, capital markets close, and BTC must be sold to service senior debt.
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What happens to BTC per share under the stress test?
Common equity BTC per share falls from 138,161 sats to 7,884 sats, a roughly 94% compression. The modeled share price bottoms at $1.01.
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How much BTC would MSTR have to sell in the worst case?
After cash runs out in month nine, the model has MSTR selling roughly 115,727 BTC over three years to cover obligations.
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Does the stress test predict a death spiral or bankruptcy?
No. Livingston's conclusion is that the main risk is dilution of common equity BTC per share, not instant bankruptcy. The model ends with MSTR still holding 731,636 BTC at an mNAV of 1.40x.
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What is the claim ratio and why does it matter?
The claim ratio measures senior debt obligations against available assets. It rises from 41.5% to 96.7% under the stress test, signaling that nearly all asset value would be committed to debtholders before common equity holders see anything.
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