CoinDesk
Samson Mow, the former Blockstream chief strategy officer and one of bitcoin's loudest cycle bulls, declared on Sunday that the bitcoin bottom is already in, arguing the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated after the prior all-time high landed 37 days before the April 2024 halving.
Mow framed his call as a direct rebuttal to analysts who still expect a fourth-quarter low. "I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in four months because of 'cycles'," he wrote on X. "But we had an ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles, you should reason out that the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in."
Why it matters
The cycle question is now the central technical debate around bitcoin. Mow is not the first to argue the four-year pattern has shifted; several analysts pointed to institutional demand following the launch of US spot bitcoin ETFs as a reason the post-halving arc could compress. Others say one early-cycle data point is not enough to retire a decade of precedent, and that the bear-market playbook still applies until price proves otherwise.
Market impact
The counter-calls cluster between $40,000 and $55,000. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, pegged a $55,000 bottom between August and October. Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, went more bearish, targeting roughly $40,000 within six months. CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten leaned on the 200-week moving average, saying bitcoin may still need to drop 15% or more and that the $50,000 to $54,000 range is the next key battleground; he noted bitcoin has not yet traded below its realized price this cycle, a level every prior bear market has touched before bottoming. CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole, reading the 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages, saw a potential bear cross forming that historically coincided with bottoms, a pattern some read as bullish even before Mow's call.
Frequently asked questions
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Why does Samson Mow think the bitcoin bottom is already in?
Mow argues the four-year halving cycle has accelerated. He points to bitcoin's prior all-time high arriving 37 days before the April 2024 halving, which he says compresses the cycle and pushes the post-halving low earlier than traditional models expect.
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Which analysts disagree with Mow's bitcoin bottom call?
Markus Thielen of 10x Research pegs a $55,000 bottom between August and October. Arthur Hayes targets around $40,000 within six months. CoinDesk's James Van Straten says bitcoin may still need to drop 15% or more, with $50,000 to $54,000 as the next key range.
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What is the bear cross on bitcoin's weekly moving averages?
A bear cross forms when a shorter-term moving average, here the 50-week, drops below a longer-term one, the 100-week. CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole noted the 50-week is approaching the 100-week; similar setups have historically coincided with bitcoin cycle lows.
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What does the 200-week moving average suggest for bitcoin's bottom?
CoinDesk's James Van Straten used the 200-week moving average as his anchor, writing that bitcoin testing it points to the $50,000 to $54,000 range as the next key battleground and that a 15% or larger drop may still be needed to mark the bottom.
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Has bitcoin traded below its realized price this cycle?
No. Van Straten noted that in every major bear market since 2011, bitcoin has eventually traded below its realized price before establishing a cycle bottom, and that has not happened yet in the current cycle.
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