Bitcoin is sitting near $77K-$78K after four consecutive green weekly candles, and two of crypto's better-known chart commentators disagree on what that means. On the latest NFA Live episode, Benjamin Cowen of Into The Cryptoverse read the move as a textbook countertrend rally inside a 2018/2014-style mid-term bear cycle, with seasonality pointing to weakness later in the year. Guy from Coin Bureau agreed the bounce is fragile, pinning his caution on Middle East ceasefire uncertainty, a likely Bank of Japan rate hike over the summer, and the absence of any structural reason for a durable breakout.
Why it matters
Cowen's mid-term-year framework rests on a recurring pattern: a February low, a higher low in April, a multi-week countertrend rally, and then renewed weakness into the summer. He walked through 2014, 2018 and 2022 on the show, noting that in 2018 the rally topped out roughly a week after that year's FOMC meeting, and that the current chart is tracking that script closely. He also flagged Heikin-Ashi monthly candles — historically red through the full bear market and only flipping green at the cycle bottom — as the cleanest signal that the bear is actually over.
Guy's bear case is more macro than chart-driven. He argued crypto is being buoyed by optimism over a Middle East ceasefire he isn't convinced is holding, and warned that the next leg down likely arrives once the Bank of Japan tightens. He called the S&P 500's resilience through the energy crisis "surprising," and said further DeFi exploits — with North Korea's Lazarus Group still active — are a near-certainty for the rest of the year.
Market impact
The two hosts converged on the same base case: weakness returns later in the year, even if the timing is debated. Cowen put his window around summer, after the post-FOMC and post-BOJ catalysts land; Guy said simply that crypto "is probably going to struggle over the summer." On the surprise list, Cowen singled out stalled Bitcoin dominance around 60% (suppressed by stablecoin dominance), a 40% rally in semiconductors he didn't see coming, and unusually low social-media narrative dominance for ETFs compared with the 2021 NFT and DeFi cycles. Guy added the S&P's resilience, a UK cost-of-living squeeze he expects to deepen, and a near-term call that the Clarity Act won't pass — though he conceded that if it did, it would likely mark the cycle bottom.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the 2018 mid-term-year Bitcoin pattern Cowen is referring to?
Cowen points to a recurring mid-term-year script: a February low, a higher low in April, a multi-week countertrend rally, and then renewed weakness into the summer. In 2018 the rally topped out roughly a week after that year's FOMC meeting.
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Why does Guy from Coin Bureau expect crypto to struggle over the summer?
He pins the caution on Middle East ceasefire uncertainty he doesn't fully trust, a likely Bank of Japan rate hike this summer, and the absence of any structural reason for a durable Bitcoin breakout near $77K-$78K.
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What are Heikin-Ashi monthly candles and why does Cowen use them?
Heikin-Ashi is a candlestick formulation that smooths price action. Cowen uses monthly Heikin-Ashi on Bitcoin because the candles historically stay red through the entire bear market and only flip green once the cycle bottom is in.
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Why is Bitcoin dominance stuck around 60% according to Cowen?
Cowen says the flatlining reflects rising stablecoin dominance, not weakness in Bitcoin itself — excluding stablecoins, Bitcoin dominance is still climbing. He flagged it as a surprise he didn't have on his 2026 bingo card.
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Would the Clarity Act passing actually mark the Bitcoin bottom?
Guy said he doesn't expect the Clarity Act to pass this cycle, but conceded that if it did, it would likely mark the cycle bottom — though he added the standard crypto caveat that there is always lower to go.
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