CryptoSlate
SpaceX shares slipped below their $135 offering price on Wednesday for the first time since the company's record-breaking June IPO, falling to a post-listing low of $132.28 before recovering to close at $135.27. The stock has now lost about 40% from its $225.64 peak in the first week of trading, cutting market value from more than $2.8 trillion to roughly $1.8 trillion and wiping an estimated $400 billion off Elon Musk's roughly 42% stake.
Why it matters
Crypto traders are still sitting on a large pile of leveraged exposure. SpaceX-linked perpetual futures held about $615 million in open interest early Thursday, CoinGlass data showed, even as 24-hour volume dropped from more than $10 billion near the post-IPO peak to roughly $1.6 billion. Short sellers have stacked up an estimated $8.7 billion in paper profits since shares broke below the offering price, according to Ortex. Tokenized SPCX instruments on blockchain rails carry a further $25 million in assets across more than 7,800 holders, with $313 million in transfer volume over the past month.
Open interest does not reveal direction, since every contract has a long and a short, but the persistence of $600 million-plus in exposure shows that the stock's drawdown has yet to flush leveraged crypto traders out. That exposure now sits in front of a supply event that could decide the next leg. Employees and early investors become eligible to sell 911.5 million shares on the second trading day after SpaceX's first quarterly report, expected in early August. At Wednesday's close those shares would be worth about $123 billion, against roughly $86 billion currently trading on the Nasdaq.
Market impact
The bear case rests on the float. Less than 5% of shares were available at listing, which index inclusion and heavy retail demand pushed past $225. Former Fidelity manager George Noble values the company at about $30 a share and argues the scarcity-driven premium will unwind as supply expands. Wave Function Ventures founder Jamie Gull sees a possible slide toward $100 before any recovery toward $200, though he frames Starlink and Starship as longer-term value drivers. Twenty-seven of 32 analysts tracked by LSEG still rate the stock a buy, leaving the first earnings print as the next catalyst. If shares move sharply either way with that much leverage still parked in crypto perps, the forced liquidations could run well ahead of any orderly rebalancing on the Nasdaq tape.
Frequently asked questions
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How far has SpaceX stock fallen from its post-IPO peak?
SPCX has lost about 40% since reaching $225.64 in its first week of trading, slipping to a post-listing low of $132.28 on Wednesday before recovering to close at $135.27, just below the $135 offering price.
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How much leveraged exposure to SpaceX is still parked on crypto exchanges?
SpaceX-linked perpetual futures held about $615 million in open interest early Thursday, with 24-hour volume of roughly $1.6 billion, down from more than $10 billion near the height of the post-IPO rally.
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How big is the upcoming SpaceX share unlock?
Employees and early investors become eligible to sell 911.5 million shares on the second trading day after the first quarterly report, expected in early August. At Wednesday's close those shares would be worth about $123 billion, against roughly $86 billion of stock currently trading on the Nasdaq.
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What is the bear case for SpaceX after the slide?
Former Fidelity manager George Noble values the company at about $30 a share, arguing the small float and expedited index inclusion pushed SPCX well above levels justified by financial performance. Wave Function Ventures founder Jamie Gull sees a possible move toward $100 before a slower recovery toward $200.
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Do crypto perpetual futures add a liquidation risk around the unlock?
Open interest does not show direction, but a large pool of leveraged contracts still tracking SPCX means a sharp post-earnings move could trigger cascading liquidations on crypto venues, with forced selling running ahead of any orderly rebalancing on the Nasdaq.
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