Trump backs CFTC exclusive authority over prediction markets

President Donald Trump said it was "critically important" that the CFTC retain "exclusive authority" over prediction markets, echoing Chair Michael Selig in a Truth Social post on Tuesday. The statement lands as the agency — currently operating with Selig as its sole commissioner — pursues lawsuits and amicus briefs against states including New York, Illinois and Minnesota, where governors and attorneys general have moved to ban or restrict sports-linked event contracts as unlicensed gambling.

Why it matters

The legal fight is now a turf war over whether prediction-market contracts are financial instruments under CFTC oversight or gambling products for state regulators. Cases have already reached the federal appellate level, and the CFTC's position — that any contract traded on a regulated designated contract market (DCM) falls under its jurisdiction — is the constitutional edge of the debate. Trump's intervention is the clearest White House signal yet that the federal pre-emption argument carries the executive branch's weight. His post also names the political opposition: former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, New York AG Letitia James, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, all of whom have taken public actions against the platforms in recent weeks.

Market impact

The CFTC's jurisdictional authority is existential for the largest US-licensed venues, with Kalshi and Polymarket the most exposed to state-level enforcement. Trump Jr. is an adviser to both, and Gemini — backed by Trump supporters Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss — self-certified parlay-type contracts late last week, underscoring how directly White House posture maps onto the industry's near-term product roadmap. The international read is no softer: Indonesia, Spain and India have all moved to block the platforms in the past week, while a House committee investigation is now live.