US Core CPI Hits 7-Month High in April, Beating Estimates on Every Measure!

April's inflation data came in hotter than expected across the board. Headline CPI rose 3.8% year over year — above the 3.7% consensus — while core CPI climbed 2.8% annually and 0.4% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis, both topping estimates of 2.7% and 0.3% respectively. The monthly core print is the highest in seven months.

Services ex-energy drove much of the pressure, rising 3.3% year over year. Shelter costs held firm at +3.3% annually, but transportation services were the standout at +4.3%. Apparel added 4.2%, new vehicles nudged up 0.2%, while used cars and trucks continued to deflate at -2.7% — a rare soft spot in an otherwise sticky read.

For rate markets, a beat on every single estimate — headline, core annual, and core monthly — makes the Fed's path to cuts materially harder to justify. The data pushes any realistic rate-cut timeline further out and keeps the…