U.S. Shiller P/E Hits 42.18 — Dot-Com Bubble Peak Is Just 2 Points Away!

The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for U.S. equities has climbed to 42.18, closing in on the 44.19 peak recorded during the dot-com frenzy of 1999 — the richest valuation reading in over 25 years. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have added 14% and 24% respectively since Q1, with mega-cap AI-driven tech names leading the charge.

The last time the ratio sat at these levels, the S&P 500 went on to lose 50% between March 2000 and October 2002 and did not reclaim its peak until 2007. The Shiller P/E does not predict timing, but it does compress the margin for error: even modest earnings misses or economic softness could trigger outsized negative reactions.

Bitcoin sits in an unusual position here. Traditional valuation frameworks like the Shiller P/E don't apply to an asset without cash flows, but on a pure price basis BTC is trading well below its record high of around…