CryptoSlate
The US Treasury market is showing structural strain that now directly shapes Bitcoin's price action. Total marketable Treasury debt crossed $30.2 trillion by end of fiscal 2025, the US ran a $1.8 trillion deficit, and for the first time interest payments exceeded $1 trillion annually — outpacing both defense spending and Medicare. The 10-year yield's refusal to drop below 4.3% through much of 2025 kept mortgage rates pinned above 6% even after three consecutive Fed rate cuts, exposing a deepening decoupling between short-term monetary policy and long-bond dynamics.
Hedge funds now sit at the center of this fragility. Leveraged Treasury basis trades exceeded $1 trillion in notional short futures positions by March 2025, with the largest funds running leverage above 18:1.
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