Goldman Delays Fed Rate Cut Forecast to December
Goldman sees a strong chance the Fed will avoid further rate hikes, while Polymarket odds put 2026 rate cuts at zero.
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Goldman sees a strong chance the Fed will avoid further rate hikes, while Polymarket odds put 2026 rate cuts at zero.
A possible turn lower in yields after the midterms could ease pressure on risk assets, but the forecast hinges on inflation, Fed policy and bond-market expectations.
The report complicates the outlook rather than settling it: inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% goal, while the household survey points to a more mixed labor picture.
Soft hiring and slower wage growth support a near-term Fed pause, but a 5.25% 10-year Treasury yield remains a counterweight to risk appetite.
Softer U.S. labor data is lifting expectations for Fed cuts, while the market snapshot also shows broad greed and a 65/100 altcoin reading.
A 44-percentage-point shift reduces the rate-hike risk priced into markets, a meaningful change for investors tracking Bitcoin and other risk assets.
The decision removes the prospect of a revived DOJ inquiry into the former Fed chair, without signaling any change to monetary policy.
The jobless-rate increase reflects more people seeking work, not a surge in layoffs, while rising yields and wider credit spreads complicate the market outlook.
A higher weekly reserve average and a steady overnight funding median complicate the case that quarter-end cash movements pressured Bitcoin.
Downward revisions to July and August deepen the evidence of a cooling labor market, putting U.S. growth and interest-rate expectations in focus.
The weaker labor market gives the Fed more reason to hold rates, even as elevated inflation complicates its next decision.
Cooler inflation and downward revisions to July's figures ease pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates elevated.
Cooling inflation eased rate-hike concerns, but a 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3% kept the relief rally from holding.
The use of a government phone makes the case a security matter for the central bank, rather than a monetary-policy development.
The remark puts central bank independence back in focus for investors watching US rate policy and political pressure on the Fed.
The shift eases a key near-term policy concern for risk assets, though it does not establish that the Fed will cut rates.
A gentler rate outlook could ease pressure on risk assets, but elevated Treasury yields and profit-taking remain counterweights for crypto.
Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, also undershot expectations, adding to the case for easing price pressures.
The inflation release and other macro readings could clarify whether recent rate relief reflects a durable shift in the outlook.
The proposed clock applies to supervised issuers, not automatically to exchange customers, while at least $76B in stablecoins sits on centralized venues.