BlackRock warns May CPI may reveal energy shock inflation surge
The headline print is the second-order risk; the real signal BlackRock is parsing is whether a Hormuz disruption layers a four-decade-low oil inventory draw onto an already sticky CPI.
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The headline print is the second-order risk; the real signal BlackRock is parsing is whether a Hormuz disruption layers a four-decade-low oil inventory draw onto an already sticky CPI.
Headline inflation reaccelerated above the 3.6-3.7% consensus, core ticked up to 2.74%, and fed funds futures now imply no cuts in 2026 or 2027 — with rate hikes back on the table.
Both the headline and core prints undershot consensus, giving the Fed cover to keep cutting while the disinflation glide-path stays intact.
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