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The metals that traded like AI-infrastructure proxies for the first half of the year have now given back every basis point of YTD gains, with gold off 25% from its $5,600 peak and silver cut nearly…
Seasonality data going back to the 1960s puts the average midterm-year bottom in early July, and the bull-market support band near $3,800 has not been tagged since 2023.
Comparing 2026 against 2022 and 2018 puts the drawdown right at the average for prior midterm years, and the window for a low lines up between July and October.
The call frames the next 6-8 weeks as a dollar-driven retest of trendline support, with the 2018 and 2022 late-summer lows cited as the structural roadmap.
Gold is trading around $4,000 an ounce after a roughly 28% drawdown from its early-2026 peak, and on average the metal…
Backed 1:1 sounds reassuring. But tokenized gold is a chain of claims, not a bar in your hand, and the failure modes live in the seams.
The ratio has topped its 200-day moving average for the first meaningful time since September 2020 — the same setup that historically preceded bitcoin's 2021 vertical phase by weeks to months.
Dollar strength into year-end will likely drag gold another 2-4 weeks, but the central-bank bid and policy-print expectations say the bull cycle's structural, not finished.
Gold tokens like PAXG and XAUT track metal prices with no yield. T-bill tokens like BUIDL and OUSG pass through ~4-5% yield but add custodial and KYC layers. They're different tools, not rivals.
WuBlockchain
Benjamin Cowen
CoinDesk