Every Zipp story tagged #DollarIndex, newest first.
Across every dollar rally since 2015, BTC showed significantly more relative strength, so a flip of that pattern would be a positive signal for the complex.
The former Fed governor's read reframes the policy debate: with 42 days of market-driven tightening already in the tape, the FOMC's next decision is about validating or pushing back on the curve…
The 4.2% weekly gain came without any crypto-specific catalyst; the tape is reading Asian semis and a sliding dollar, which means the next leg depends on whether the AI trade holds.
A record net long dollar position and $700B of leveraged SOFR shorts are the kind of one-sided positioning that snaps the other way. The question is whether Friday's jobs print is the jolt.
The round $60K mark is no longer the level traders care about. With Thursday's core PCE forecast to print the hottest reading since late 2023, $59K is the support bulls now have to defend.
Selling pressure has eased but never reversed; combined with a rebounding dollar and a cautious Fed, the absence of fresh institutional bid is keeping BTC range-bound between roughly $60K and $67K.
Fed funds futures have now priced a 35% chance of a September rate hike — up from 12% a week ago — and the dollar's surge past 100 is putting fresh pressure on risk assets across the board.
DXY's push through 100.60 would mark a structural shift in the dollar regime — and the 0.82 inverse correlation with BTC is the mechanism that turns a macro breakout into a crypto selloff.
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