Every Zipp story tagged #FedWatch, newest first.
Warsh cannot match the hawkish pricing already in markets. A softer message risks dollar weakness and inflation-driven yields, which historically revives Bitcoin's sovereign-hedge trade.
Breadth did the heavy lifting: Zcash jumped 16.5%, ADA added 13%, and Strategy and Circle each gained 15%, with traders split nearly evenly on a Fed rate hike.
The high-beta majors shed over 3% while Bitcoin barely moved, the spread is the story. Oil above $95 and a 66% Fed hike probability turned a geopolitics headline into a crypto liquidation.
Friday's August payrolls print lands after July's -23K shock and 103K of combined revisions, while Russia's first large-scale CBDC phase kicks off the same morning the ruble stablecoin consultation…
The 29% FedWatch odds of a July hike look about right: the more useful signal is the 2-year yield pushing the Fed funds rate toward 4.25%, which is the level the market wants by December.
Futures turnover is running 6.85x spot, open interest is 7x daily spot volume, and the next $200M+ in forced unwinds could land while Bitcoin is already sliding under the $64K level the market says…
A 2,000-claim beat looks small, but a downward revision to the prior week keeps the labor market narrative firmly 'no rush to cut' for the Fed.
The bounce came not from crypto buyers but from Micron's blockbuster earnings, proof that the same AI memory trade that hammered risk assets on Monday is now the only thing steadying the market…
The macro calendar carries the week: PCE, jobless claims and two housing prints arrive Thursday morning, with prediction markets already pricing in a hold at June's FOMC and Kevin Warsh's first full…
The 9-day ETF inflow run broke before the Fed's rate decision and a heavy data week, leaving Bitcoin down roughly 1% and Ethereum 1.4% as the Fear & Greed Index slipped to 33.
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