CryptoSlate
Bitcoin trades near $77,381 with 68% of circulating supply now in profit, up from 65% when BTC traded at this level in May, according to Glassnode. That three-point gap represents roughly 600,000 additional BTC, worth about $47 billion at current prices, sitting above the market as potential selling pressure before any test of $80,000.
Why it matters
The profit overhang comes in two distinct bands. Short-term holders who accumulated through the June-to-August range have a cost basis near $71,000 and are already in the green at today's price. Higher up, Glassnode identifies heavy long-term holder supply concentrated between $83,000 and $86,000, roughly 1.05 million BTC belonging to holders who sat through the drawdown without selling. A return to that zone would let them exit whole for the first time since the correction began.
Spot ETFs funded the August rally with a seven-day average of $290 million per day in inflows, but secondary-market turnover stayed near $3 billion per day, below prior expansionary phases. This week brought roughly $236 million of outflows led by IBIT, the first live test of whether ETF demand can absorb the expanded supply.
Market impact
The macro backdrop that fueled August has tightened. The 10-year yield briefly dropped toward 4.6% on Treasury's Aug. 19 buyback announcement, then sat back near 4.8% eight sessions later, while Brent crude settled around $95.63 amid renewed US-Iran tensions. Futures markets now price roughly two-thirds odds of a September rate hike, with CPI landing Sept. 11 and the Fed meeting Sept. 15-16.
A quarterly options expiry on Sept. 25 carries roughly $14 billion of open interest across Deribit and IBIT, with a meaningful share clustered higher than $80,000. The bull case requires ETF flows to flip positive and turnover to expand so Bitcoin can clear the $83,000-$86,000 long-term holder band and target the options-implied upper range near $89,700. The bear case has ETF outflows persisting while recent buyers defend gains, which would drag Bitcoin back through $71,000 and into the $62,000-$65,000 accumulation floor.
Frequently asked questions
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How much Bitcoin supply is in profit at $77,000?
Glassnode data shows 68% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is in profit at $77,381, up from 65% when BTC traded at this level in May. That three-point gap works out to roughly 600,000 additional BTC, worth about $47 billion at current prices.
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What is Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis?
Glassnode places the short-term holder cost basis near $71,000, reset lower by months of trading through the June-to-August range. Buyers who accumulated during that stretch are already profitable at today's price.
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Where is long-term holder supply concentrated?
Glassnode identifies heavy long-term holder supply between $83,000 and $86,000, totaling roughly 1.05 million BTC. A return to that zone would let those holders exit whole for the first time since the correction began.
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How are spot Bitcoin ETFs performing this week?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged roughly $236 million of outflows this week, led by IBIT, the first live test of demand against the expanded profit overhang. During August's rally they took in a seven-day average of $290 million per day.
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What catalysts could move Bitcoin in September?
Key macro tests include the Sept. 4 jobs report, Sept. 11 CPI print, and Sept. 15-16 Fed meeting. A quarterly options expiry on Sept. 25 carries roughly $14 billion of open interest across Deribit and IBIT, with meaningful positioning clustered above $80,000.
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