Every Zipp story tagged #RateCuts, newest first.
A 57K print against 110K expectations should be dovish, but a 4.2% unemployment rate and 3.5% wage growth give Powell's Fed every reason to look through it, and that tension is now the trade.
The 57K print versus 110K consensus and a combined 74K downward revision to April and May told markets the Fed's restrictive stance is no longer fully warranted; the on-chain tape agrees that seller…
A sub-consensus payroll print paired with a falling jobless rate is the stagflation-adjacent signal the Fed has been watching for, and rate-cut bets repriced within minutes.
The lift came from a single dovish line at Sintra, not from fresh demand, and it stood out because Asian tech was getting crushed the same hour on AI-chip jitters.
Warsh's Sintra remarks echoed a broader central-bank pivot away from explicit forward guidance, with the ECB's Lagarde and the BoE's Bailey also signaling the same shift on the same panel.
The print came in 20K short of expectations and marked the weakest gain since the prior cycle, reinforcing the cooling-labor read that has driven rate-cut bets higher through the month.
Rate hikes now outweigh rate cuts as the base case, and that keeps altcoins and $BTC pinned to the back of the risk curve until the Fed has a reason to pivot.
Goldman now sees the Fed holding through all of 2026 with first cuts pushed to June and December 2027, and the market is pricing 75.5% odds of rate hikes before year-end.
The Iran-deal bid faded as the May minutes reminded traders that the Fed's next move is now as likely to be a hike as a cut — and oil-flow headlines will set the next tape.
Headline inflation reaccelerated above the 3.6-3.7% consensus, core ticked up to 2.74%, and fed funds futures now imply no cuts in 2026 or 2027 — with rate hikes back on the table.
Barclays, JPMorgan and other major brokerages have walked back rate-cut calls as energy-driven inflation sticks — yet spot BTC ETFs keep drawing inflows and price keeps grinding higher.
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