Every Zipp story tagged #RateCuts, newest first.
The jobs signal puts the Fed's reaction, rate-cut odds and real yields at the center of Bitcoin's support test into the long weekend.
Warsh's hawkish hold signal comes as rising energy and AI-driven capex put the Fed's cutting path on ice, with markets now pricing fewer moves than earlier this year.
Producer prices cooling faster than expected strengthens the case that the Fed's inflation fight is rolling over, just as the market was pricing in a hold.
Headline PPI printed 5.5% vs 6.2% expected and core came in 50bp light too, the cleanest disinflation print in months and a direct tailwind for risk assets and BTC.
The headline CPI relief is already in the price; the market now waits on how Warsh frames it, since his interpretation will steer rate-cut odds and the next leg for BTC.
Headline inflation ran a full 30bp cooler than consensus and core ran 20bp cool, reviving the rate-cut tape and knocking the dollar lower just as markets were bracing for a hawkish Fed.
Both the headline and core prints undershot consensus, giving the Fed cover to keep cutting while the disinflation glide-path stays intact.
Wintermute's note frames the rebound as a flush of weak hands, but September rate-hike odds are climbing on oil and CPI lands Tuesday, so the relief rally is still hostage to the macro tape.
A 57K print against 110K expectations should be dovish, but a 4.2% unemployment rate and 3.5% wage growth give Powell's Fed every reason to look through it, and that tension is now the trade.
The 57K print versus 110K consensus and a combined 74K downward revision to April and May told markets the Fed's restrictive stance is no longer fully warranted; the on-chain tape agrees that seller…
A sub-consensus payroll print paired with a falling jobless rate is the stagflation-adjacent signal the Fed has been watching for, and rate-cut bets repriced within minutes.
The lift came from a single dovish line at Sintra, not from fresh demand, and it stood out because Asian tech was getting crushed the same hour on AI-chip jitters.
Warsh's Sintra remarks echoed a broader central-bank pivot away from explicit forward guidance, with the ECB's Lagarde and the BoE's Bailey also signaling the same shift on the same panel.
The print came in 20K short of expectations and marked the weakest gain since the prior cycle, reinforcing the cooling-labor read that has driven rate-cut bets higher through the month.
Rate hikes now outweigh rate cuts as the base case, and that keeps altcoins and $BTC pinned to the back of the risk curve until the Fed has a reason to pivot.
Goldman now sees the Fed holding through all of 2026 with first cuts pushed to June and December 2027, and the market is pricing 75.5% odds of rate hikes before year-end.
The Iran-deal bid faded as the May minutes reminded traders that the Fed's next move is now as likely to be a hike as a cut — and oil-flow headlines will set the next tape.
Headline inflation reaccelerated above the 3.6-3.7% consensus, core ticked up to 2.74%, and fed funds futures now imply no cuts in 2026 or 2027 — with rate hikes back on the table.
Barclays, JPMorgan and other major brokerages have walked back rate-cut calls as energy-driven inflation sticks — yet spot BTC ETFs keep drawing inflows and price keeps grinding higher.
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Benjamin Cowen