Every Zipp story tagged #WorldCup2026, newest first.
Kalshi, Polymarket and the new Robinhood–Susquehanna JV Rothera cleared $44B between them in June, roughly 10x what US sportsbooks are projected to handle across all 104 matches.
Kalshi alone holds $1.2B of the total, a 91.9% monthly jump, as the FIFA tournament pulls retail and event-driven flow into a category still finding its legs.
The headline is volume, not the favourite: $2.54B traded before a ball is kicked, with $58M concentrated on France at 18.5% and Spain and Argentina trailing.
Spain gets the model's heaviest group-stage confidence at ~98% on Polymarket, but the standouts are Senegal-over-Norway and the co-host boosts for the US, Canada, and Mexico.
A newly created wallet piled into Brazil, Colombia, Belgium, Senegal, and Morocco at single-digit implied odds — a thin but telling bet that the market is under-pricing the tournament's long tail.
Polymarket's $2B and Kalshi's $100M+ in World Cup contracts turn the tournament into a live stress test of event-contract venues against incumbent sportsbooks, with a CFTC-vs-states fight hanging…
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