CoinDesk
Prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket and the Robinhood–Susquehanna joint venture Rothera combined for more than $44 billion in notional trading volume in June, a single-month record that comfortably eclipses the $2.8B to $4.3B US legal sportsbooks are projected to handle across the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kalshi alone posted $31B, a 70% jump from May, with sports contracts making up roughly 85% of trading and World Cup-specific markets alone generating $7.4B before the group stage ended, per Dune analytics. Polymarket's international exchange set a monthly record at $10.8B while its regulated US platform added a separate $3.5B, and Rothera, which only launched in June, processed $2B in its debut month for a 7% slice of the US market on first appearance, per Bank of America.
Why it matters
The growth is not just bigger numbers; it is a different audience. Apptopia data through June 30 shows Kalshi's daily active users up 36% from mid-month, while DraftKings fell 36% from its tournament peak, FanDuel dropped 41%, and BetMGM and Caesars each slipped 32%. Kalshi's female user base grew 106% during the tournament, more than double the 54% rate among men, putting women at a third of its users against the 22–23% share typical at DraftKings and FanDuel. YouGov's BrandIndex placed Kalshi on the same consumer-momentum list as Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Visa, outranking Fox itself, a signal that prediction markets have crossed from gambling product into mainstream brand.
Market impact
The institutional layer is following the retail one. Chicago trading giant DRW has been building a dedicated prediction market desk targeting Polymarket and Kalshi, applying cross-platform arbitrage techniques honed in derivatives. Polymarket's $571M in US-linked wallet flow over the past year on its still-geoblocked global platform, captured by Allium, hints at a demand that survived the 2022 CFTC action and is now served by a fully regulated US app launched in December. With 39 states offering legal mobile sports betting and the US team still alive deep into the bracket, the read is that prediction markets have moved from a parallel rails story to the default venue for event-based trading in the US.
Frequently asked questions
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How much volume did prediction markets handle during the 2026 World Cup?
Kalshi posted $31B in June with sports at roughly 85% of flow, Polymarket's international exchange hit a $10.8B record plus a separate $3.5B on its US arm, and Rothera added $2B on debut. World Cup-specific markets on Kalshi alone generated $7.4B before the group stage ended.
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How do prediction markets compare to traditional sportsbooks this World Cup?
US legal sportsbooks are projected to handle $2.8B to $4.3B across the tournament's 104 matches. Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera together cleared more than $44B in a single month, roughly an order of magnitude more.
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Why are Kalshi's user demographics different from sportsbooks?
Kalshi's female user base grew 106% during the tournament versus 54% for men, and women reached a third of the platform against 22–23% at DraftKings and FanDuel. The platform also attracted first-time bettors with no prior sportsbook usage.
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Is Polymarket legal in the United States now?
Yes. Polymarket acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange for $112M, received an Amended Order of Designation in November 2025, and launched a US iOS app in December. The regulated US app requires full KYC and settles in dollars, distinct from the still-geoblocked global platform that settles in USDC.
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Are institutional firms getting involved in prediction markets?
Chicago-based trading firm DRW is building a dedicated prediction market desk targeting Polymarket and Kalshi, applying cross-platform arbitrage techniques. Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group launched Rothera in June through Robinhood's January acquisition of exchange operator MIAXdx.
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