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In his Safety First essay, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that AI labs slowing AGI development could signal weaker demand for AI at current prices, not only safety concerns. He says reduced training spending would pressure data centers, chipmakers and more than $1 trillion of investment-grade debt tied to AI infrastructure, along with hundreds of billions of dollars in lower-rated loans.
Why it matters
Hayes’ thesis links the AI investment cycle to broader credit conditions. If AI infrastructure spending weakens, debt tied to the sector could come under pressure and expose lenders and insurers to losses. He argues that policymakers would then face pressure to intervene rather than allow the stress to spread through credit markets.
Market impact
Hayes sees two possible responses: the U.S. government could become a “compute buyer of last resort,” or it could support insurers exposed to AI debt. Either outcome, in his view, would increase dollar liquidity and create a favorable macro backdrop for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
The argument turns an AI slowdown into a potential liquidity trade. The key variables are AI demand, infrastructure spending and whether credit stress becomes large enough to draw a public-sector response.
Frequently asked questions
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Why does Arthur Hayes think AI labs may slow AGI development?
Hayes argues that moves by Anthropic and OpenAI to slow AGI work could reflect weaker-than-expected demand for AI at current prices, rather than only safety concerns.
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How much debt could face pressure in Hayes’ AI bust scenario?
Hayes points to more than $1 trillion of investment-grade debt and hundreds of billions of dollars in lower-rated loans tied to AI infrastructure.
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What could weaker AI demand do to credit markets?
Reduced training spending could pressure data centers and chipmakers, while increasing stress on debt linked to AI infrastructure and potentially exposing insurers to losses.
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What government responses does Hayes outline?
Hayes says the U.S. government could become a “compute buyer of last resort” or support insurers exposed to AI debt.
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Why would an AI bust potentially benefit Bitcoin?
Hayes expects either government response to increase dollar liquidity, creating a macro backdrop he views as favorable for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
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