TheBlock
Bitcoin holders realised 14,600 BTC in daily profits on May 4 — the highest single-day print since December 10, 2025 — as the cryptocurrency extends a 20%-plus rally from early April to a three-month high near $80,180, according to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno.
The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has held above 1.00 since mid-April, sitting at 1.016 on the latest read, signalling that recent buyers are consistently selling at a profit. On a 30-day rolling basis, net realised profits have flipped to +20,000 BTC — the first positive reading since December 22, 2025 — after touching -398,000 BTC during the February-March sell-off.
Why it matters
Moreno still classifies the move as a "bear market rally," not a structural regime change. The +20,000 BTC 30-day net profit print is well below the 130,000–200,000 BTC range that has historically marked confirmed bull-market transitions, and the gap is the single most important data point in the report.
Unrealised profit margins are also climbing — currently around +18%, against -29% during the February-March drawdown. History shows that as unrealised gains expand, the holder base becomes progressively more willing to distribute, raising the probability of a topping pattern if no fresh demand absorbs the supply.
Market impact
A confirmed top is not imminent. Moreno points to three demand-side cushions: perpetual futures demand keeps climbing, spot demand contraction has stayed mild rather than severe, and exchange inflows remain muted — a combination "consistent with a rally that carries meaningful correction risk but has not yet reached a confirmed distributional peak."
Translation: the supply pressure is real and building, but the bid is still thick enough to absorb it for now. Any break below the demand pillars — particularly a sudden surge in exchange inflows or a sharp unwind in perps open interest — would be the first signal that the correction Moreno warns about is actually starting.
Frequently asked questions
-
What is the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR)?
It measures whether short-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1.00 means sellers are, on aggregate, locking in gains; CryptoQuant noted STH-SOPR has held above 1.00 since mid-April, with the latest print at 1.016.
-
How much profit have Bitcoin holders realised on the recent rally?
Holders realised 14,600 BTC in daily profits on May 4, the highest single-day figure since December 10, 2025. On a 30-day rolling basis, net realised profits flipped positive at +20,000 BTC — the first positive reading since December 22, 2025.
-
Why does CryptoQuant still call this a 'bear market rally'?
Because the +20,000 BTC 30-day net profit print is far below the 130,000–200,000 BTC range historically associated with confirmed bull-market transitions, according to CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno. Unrealised gains are recovering but the scale is not yet consistent with a structural regime change.
-
What could trigger a correction from here?
Moreno points to three demand-side cushions that have held so far: rising perpetual futures demand, mild spot demand contraction, and muted exchange inflows. A sharp jump in exchange inflows or a sudden unwind in perps open interest would be the first sign the rally has hit a confirmed distributional peak.
-
Where is Bitcoin trading as of the report?
Bitcoin was trading near $80,180 at the time of the report, nearly flat over the prior 24 hours, according to The Block's BTC price page.
Crypto Rank News
Glassnode
WuBlockchain
CoinDesk
CryptoSlate
Lookonchain
Crypto News
CoinTelegraph