CoinDesk
Atlas Capital CEO Reza Bundy expects bitcoin to fall as much as 70% over the next six months, with a target band of $26,000 to $30,000, before eventually climbing as high as $500,000 in the years ahead. Speaking to CoinDesk at the Proof of Talk conference in Paris, Bundy framed the near-term call as a direct echo of his chief economist and Atlas co-founder, Nouriel Roubini — the economist who predicted the 2008 subprime crisis and has been publicly skeptical of bitcoin since 2017.
Bundy anchored the short-term forecast to equities: if the S&P 500 suffers a drawdown half the size of 2008, he expects bitcoin to roughly double that equity loss. He also argued bitcoin has failed as an inflation hedge and now trades as a high-beta risk asset in lockstep with tech stocks — a critique billionaire Mark Cuban has also made after trimming his own position.
Why it matters
The Bundy call sits at the intersection of two opposing forces inside one firm. Roubini reiterated in recent Bloomberg commentary that bitcoin is a "pseudo-asset class" — a pure speculative asset with no fundamental value, distinct from gold as a real hedge. Bundy accepts that framing for the next six months but rejects it for the decade.
His longer-term bullish range is built on four macro paths: "Controlled Expansion" (40% probability) takes bitcoin to $150,000-$250,000; "Fiscal Dominance" (25%) — governments printing to cover debt — pushes it to $250,000-$500,000; "Global Conflict" (20%) starts with a sharp panic sell-off before proving bitcoin's safe-haven thesis; and "Deflationary Recession" (15%) leaves bitcoin weak until central banks restore liquidity. The store-of-value thesis, in Bundy's telling, rests on rising government debt, central-bank money printing, and falling trust in fiat — Satoshi's original pitch restated for a sovereign-debt era.
Market impact
The number that will move screens is the $26K-$30K target — a level that would revisit bitcoin's late-2022 cycle lows and would test conviction across the spot ETF complex.
Frequently asked questions
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Who is Reza Bundy and what is Atlas Capital?
Bundy is CEO of Atlas Capital, an investment advisory firm whose chief economist and co-founder is Nouriel Roubini — the economist nicknamed 'Dr. Doom' for predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and who has publicly criticized bitcoin since 2017.
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What is Bundy's near-term bitcoin price target?
Bundy expects bitcoin to fall as much as 70% over the next six months, with a target band of $26,000 to $30,000, anchored to a scenario in which the S&P 500 suffers a drawdown roughly half the size of 2008.
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What is Bundy's long-term bitcoin forecast?
He projects a long-term range of $150,000 to $500,000, depending on which of four global macro paths plays out — controlled expansion, fiscal dominance, global conflict, or deflationary recession.
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Why does Bundy think bitcoin has failed as an inflation hedge?
He argues bitcoin has not behaved as a hedge during recent periods of geopolitical stress and dollar weakness, and now trades as a high-beta risk asset that moves in lockstep with tech stocks — a critique billionaire Mark Cuban has also voiced.
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What is the 'techno-dollar' strategy and does it include bitcoin?
It is Atlas Capital's allocation strategy run through the USAF ETF on Nasdaq, using AI-driven models to rotate across gold, food, real estate, and defense tech. Bundy keeps bitcoin out of the fund until the predicted short-term crash passes, with a tokenized version planned for public blockchains later this month.
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