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Bernstein kept Outperform ratings on Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle ahead of third-quarter earnings, but sharply redirected its revenue outlook toward prediction markets, derivatives and tokenization. The firm cut Coinbase’s 2026 revenue forecast by roughly 32% to $5.5 billion and lowered its price target to $250 from $330. It also raised its Robinhood revenue outlook and lifted Circle’s target to $145 from $140.
Why it matters
Bernstein no longer assumes bullish crypto price action in its Coinbase estimates, citing weaker trading volumes and a stalled recovery. The firm expects Coinbase’s spot trading volume to stagnate at $150 billion in the third quarter, with stablecoin revenue becoming the largest growth driver.
At the same time, prediction markets and derivatives on Coinbase are projected to generate roughly $2 billion in revenue by 2028, up from an earlier estimate of about $600 million. Robinhood’s prediction-market revenue is forecast to reach $1.7 billion in 2028, slightly ahead of its projected $1.6 billion in crypto revenue.
Market impact
The estimates show how financial platforms are broadening beyond spot crypto trading. Bernstein expects Robinhood’s event-contract volume to rise 21% quarter over quarter to about 16.4 billion contracts, while crypto trading across Robinhood and Bitstamp is forecast to recover to roughly $50 billion, still 38% below last year’s third-quarter level.
Robinhood’s blockchain generated about $90 billion in transaction volume and $50 million in fees during the third quarter, mainly from memecoin trading. For Circle, Bernstein expects third-quarter revenue of $770 million despite lower reserve income as USDC supply fell to around $73 billion from $77 billion. The firm sees Arc token presales, transaction fees and validator staking as potential revenue streams beyond reserve yields.
Frequently asked questions
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Why did Bernstein lower Coinbase’s 2026 revenue forecast?
Bernstein cited weaker crypto trading volumes, a stalled recovery and the removal of bullish crypto price assumptions from its estimates.
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How much revenue could Coinbase’s prediction markets and derivatives generate?
Bernstein projects roughly $2 billion in revenue from Coinbase’s prediction markets and derivatives products by 2028, up from about $600 million earlier in the year.
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How large could Robinhood’s prediction-market business become?
Bernstein forecasts Robinhood prediction-market revenue of $1.7 billion in 2028, slightly ahead of its projected $1.6 billion in crypto revenue.
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What did Robinhood’s blockchain generate in the third quarter?
Robinhood’s native blockchain generated about $90 billion in transaction volume and $50 million in fees during the third quarter, mainly from memecoin trading.
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Why did Bernstein raise Circle’s price target?
Bernstein raised Circle’s target to $145 from $140 based on Arc token presales and the potential for transaction fees and validator staking revenue beyond USDC reserve income.
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