CoinDesk
Market analysts say investors are entering a stretch where AI dispersion, Federal Reserve policy, and post-ETF bitcoin market structure could drive sharp swings across equities and cryptocurrencies, even as the broader economy stays resilient. Former Credit Suisse global head of portfolio and Risk Dimensions CIO Mark Connors told CoinDesk that AI is no longer lifting the technology sector indiscriminately and is instead separating infrastructure builders from companies whose products face automation risk, pointing to recent selloffs in Accenture, Autodesk, and Intuit as evidence. Hyperion Decimus co-founder Chris Sullivan pushed back on the view that spot bitcoin ETFs had killed the four-year cycle, arguing structural hedging and institutional flows have only changed how bitcoin trades, not its boom-and-bust pattern.
Why it matters
Connors framed the backdrop as a market being cleaved in two, with macro correlations across stocks, bonds, commodities, and crypto rising on Kestrel data and investors reacting more to Federal Reserve and Treasury financing headlines than to company-specific fundamentals. He expects the rest of the year to stay messy until financial conditions ease. Sullivan agreed on elevated uncertainty but pointed to bitcoin's own mechanics, arguing derivatives hedging around spot ETF creations and redemptions has weakened historical macro relationships and that on-chain fundamentals plus depressed sentiment could set up an attractive risk-reward once the current decline matures.
Market impact
Sullivan is watching for a final bottoming pattern before declaring the bear market over and continues to call for a bitcoin base in the $54,000 to $58,000 range, a level that would imply further downside from current prices. Connors' read is closer to a barbell: AI beneficiaries compound, AI-disrupted names keep derating, and a volatile macro tape cuts both ways for risk assets until Fed visibility returns.
Frequently asked questions
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What did Mark Connors say about the AI trade?
Connors, formerly Credit Suisse's global head of portfolio and now Risk Dimensions CIO, argued AI is no longer lifting tech indiscriminately and is separating infrastructure builders from companies facing automation, citing selloffs in Accenture, Autodesk, and Intuit as evidence.
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Did spot bitcoin ETFs end bitcoin's four-year cycle?
Hyperion Decimus co-founder Chris Sullivan disagreed, arguing that ETF-related hedging and institutional flows changed how bitcoin trades but left its historical boom-and-bust pattern intact, and that a final bottoming pattern still has to print.
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Where does Sullivan expect bitcoin to bottom?
Sullivan continues to call for a bitcoin bear-market bottom in the $54,000 to $58,000 range, citing improving on-chain fundamentals and depressed sentiment as a setup for long-term investors once uncertainty clears.
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Why are cross-asset correlations rising?
According to Kestrel data cited in the piece, correlations among stocks, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies have climbed in recent months as investors respond more to Federal Reserve and Treasury financing headlines than to company-specific fundamentals.
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What is the outlook for the rest of the year?
Connors expects the rest of the year to stay messy until financial conditions ease, while Sullivan sees an attractive risk-reward setup once bitcoin prints its final bottoming pattern and macro visibility returns.
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