CryptoSlate
The Sept. 16 FOMC raised the federal-funds target range 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% and set the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.90%, effective Sept. 17, while retaining conditional authority for the New York Fed trading desk to buy T-bills and short Treasuries to maintain ample reserves. Bitcoin traded near $76,044 with a 0.13% gain over 24 hours, even as Farside Investors recorded $450.4M of net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on Sept. 15.
Why it matters
The package combines a tighter administered rate with an ample-reserves operating system. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson drew the line in January: QE removes duration risk from private portfolios and eases financial conditions; RMPs are a narrower instrument for keeping overnight rates under control. NY Fed markets chief Roberto Perli separately said 2026 reserve-management purchases have been entirely in bills, contrasting them with the longer-duration purchases used to stimulate the economy.
That division of labor is what lets Fed assets grow while policy tightens. The pre-decision H.4.1 release put total assets at $6.740619 trillion on Sept. 9, up $3.415B on the week and $134.657B year-on-year. Through July 1, the Fed's Monetary Policy Report said SOMA had bought nearly $250B of T-bills since early January, with about $160B from RMPs and $90B from agency-security reinvestments.
Market impact
The published schedule sets net RMPs at zero for Sept. 15-Oct. 14 and includes only about $15.6B of T-bill purchases funded by principal payments from agency MBS, a reinvestment flow separate from net RMP buying. Pre-decision money-market readings showed SOFR at 3.64% and the effective federal-funds rate at 3.63% on Sept. 15, consistent with the Fed retaining overnight-rate control despite the rate hike.
Causal attribution from this decision to Bitcoin's price is not supported by the data shown. The decisive evidence for any future 'QE' call sits in the program's announced purpose, scale, and maturity composition, not in the asset-side total. A convincing liquidity-pivot case would still need to pair easier longer-term financial conditions with stronger crypto demand; on Sept.
Frequently asked questions
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What did the Fed actually do at the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting?
It raised the federal-funds target range 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% and set IORB at 3.90% effective Sept. 17, while keeping conditional authority for the NY Fed trading desk to buy T-bills for ample-reserve maintenance.
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What is the difference between RMPs and QE?
QE removes duration risk from private portfolios to ease financial conditions. RMPs are narrower bill-only purchases used to maintain ample reserves and keep overnight rates under control, per Vice Chair Jefferson and NY Fed's Perli.
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Did the Fed restart QE on Sept. 16?
No. The published schedule sets net RMPs at zero for Sept. 15-Oct. 14, with about $15.6B of T-bill purchases funded by agency MBS principal payments, a reinvestment flow separate from net reserve-management buying.
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How did Bitcoin react to the Fed decision?
Bitcoin traded near $76,044 with a 0.13% gain over 24 hours, while Farside Investors recorded $450.4M of net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs on Sept. 15.
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What would a real Bitcoin liquidity-pivot actually look like?
It would pair easier longer-term financial conditions with stronger crypto demand. For now, the Sept. 16 package is tighter monetary policy implemented through an ample-reserves system, not easing.
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