CoinDesk
Bitcoin's third post-halving year has historically been the cyclical bottom, and with the April 2024 supply cut now ten months behind the market, analysts tracking the reward-halving cycle are flagging October as the most likely window for a final low before the next leg up.
Why it matters
The halving-cycle thesis has called every macro low since 2012 — a 100% track record across three cycles that has turned the four-year rhythm into the most-cited framework in Bitcoin market analysis. The mechanics are simple: the April halving cuts new supply in half, miner pressure on the sell side peaks roughly six months later, and the historical bottom forms in the window between miner capitulation and the first wave of post-cut demand. October sits squarely in that window for this cycle.
Market impact
The complication is structural. Spot BTC ETFs launched in January 2024 have introduced a persistent bid from registered investment advisers, pensions, and wealth platforms that did not exist in any prior cycle. If that bid holds through October, the historical pattern could play out at a higher price floor than previous cycles — the same shape, a higher level. If it doesn't, the framework's first miss in four cycles would force a wholesale rewrite of how retail frames Bitcoin's macro timing. Either outcome is investable; the question is whether the cycle still leads price or whether the flow regime has decoupled from it.
Frequently asked questions
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What is the Bitcoin halving-cycle bottom theory?
The theory holds that Bitcoin's macro bottom forms roughly 12-18 months after each reward-halving event, when miner sell-side pressure peaks and demand catches up to the reduced new supply. It has identified every macro low since 2012.
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When did the most recent Bitcoin halving occur?
The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024, cutting the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC and reducing the rate of new supply issuance by half.
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Why is October 2025 flagged as a potential bottom window?
October sits roughly ten months after the April 2024 halving — inside the historical 12-18 month post-cut window where previous cycles printed their macro lows. The exact timing varies by cycle, but the window has been consistent.
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How could spot BTC ETFs change the halving-cycle pattern?
Spot BTC ETFs launched in January 2024 created a persistent institutional bid from RIAs, pensions, and wealth platforms that didn't exist in prior cycles. If that bid holds, the historical bottom could form at a higher price floor than previous cycles — same shape, higher level.
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What would invalidate the halving-cycle thesis?
A macro bottom that fails to form in the 12-18 month post-halving window, or a cycle that breaks the four-year rhythm entirely, would force a rewrite of how Bitcoin's macro timing is framed. Either a delayed bottom or an absent one would be the framework's first miss in four cycles.
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