CryptoSlate
The Federal Reserve held its target rate at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote on Oct. 28, but two officials favored an immediate quarter-point increase. Markets put the odds of a December hike near 87%, while Bitcoin traded around $81,000 after dipping to $80,500.
Why it matters
The decision was a hold, but the dissents and rate pricing leave further tightening firmly in play. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said credit conditions had tightened and higher rates were affecting technology investment, including AI, while declining to call overall financial conditions tight. Thursday’s PCE report, followed by jobs and inflation data, could change the outlook before the Dec. 8-9 meeting.
That uncertainty matters for risk assets. A higher-for-longer rate path can weigh on liquidity and investment appetite, while softer inflation and easing yields could give Bitcoin room to recover. The 10-year Treasury yield was near 5.04% on decision day and the two-year near 4.78%.
Market impact
Bitcoin is near the estimated $81,500 aggregate cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Reclaiming $81,000-$82,000 could put $84,000-$85,000 in view, but a break below the $78,000-$79,000 bid cluster would expose support near $77,900 and the short-term holder cost basis around $75,800. Glassnode estimates long-term holders control about 4 million BTC acquired between $85,000 and $118,000, creating potential selling pressure as prices return toward those levels.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $487.2 million in net outflows from Oct. 22 to Oct. 27. Softer inflation, easing yields and renewed ETF inflows could support a recovery toward $90,000; hotter data and further withdrawals would strengthen the downside case. The next PCE, payrolls and CPI readings are key tests for both rate expectations and Bitcoin demand.
Frequently asked questions
-
Why did the Fed's rate hold still leave markets focused on a December hike?
Two officials dissented in favor of an immediate quarter-point increase, and markets priced the odds of a December hike near 87%.
-
What Bitcoin price level is close to the estimated spot ETF cost basis?
The estimated aggregate cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs is about $81,500, near Bitcoin's trading level in the report.
-
Which levels could come into view if Bitcoin loses the $78,000-$79,000 bid area?
A break below that bid cluster could expose the True Market Mean near $77,900 and the short-term holder cost basis around $75,800.
-
What data could shift expectations before the Fed's December meeting?
PCE, jobs and CPI readings could influence inflation expectations, Treasury yields and the market's view of the December rate decision.
-
How much Bitcoin ETF net outflow was recorded from Oct. 22 to Oct. 27?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $487.2 million in net outflows over that period.
Benjamin Cowen
Crypto Rank News
Altcoin Daily
CoinDesk
Crypto Capital Venture
WatcherGuru
CZ Binance
CoinTelegraph