Bitcoin holds $63K as Iran strikes lift Brent crude 5% to $78
The resilience masks the real risk: a second consecutive day of US strikes pushed oil up 5.2% and revived the higher-for-longer inflation trade that dragged $BTC in June.
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The resilience masks the real risk: a second consecutive day of US strikes pushed oil up 5.2% and revived the higher-for-longer inflation trade that dragged $BTC in June.
The disconnect is the story: a Hormuz-driven crude spike of more than 5% left BTC pinned inside its weeks-old range, but the calendar between the July 17 OFAC wind-down and the July 28-29 FOMC is…
Bond markets had been pricing disinflation, but a New York Fed survey shows consumers expect 3.7% inflation over the next year, and renewed Middle East strikes just sent oil higher and risk assets…
The license revocation hits roughly 1.5 million barrels a day of sanctioned crude already moving through opaque channels, and the supply shock is landing straight on top of an inflation fight the Fed…
The cumulative volume is the real story, not any single monthly increment: 940K bpd of added supply since the war began is now filtering into a market also bracing for slower demand.
The bounce is real, but the macro backdrop hasn't changed: headline CPI prints are softening while core inflation keeps grinding higher, leaving the Fed little room to ease into a recovering BTC.
The lift came from a single dovish line at Sintra, not from fresh demand, and it stood out because Asian tech was getting crushed the same hour on AI-chip jitters.
The macro read is the story: a Fed chair publicly walking back inflation alarm, even with the Fear & Greed Index still in extreme fear, is the kind of divergence that historically sets up the next…
Warsh's first public inflation remark as Chair lands with rates markets already pricing two cuts in 2026 and Powell's successor test still ahead of the November FOMC.
A sitting Fed chair using the phrase on the record keeps a hawkish lean in play going into the next FOMC, and BTC stays pinned to whatever the dot plot eventually prints.
Warsh's Sintra remarks echoed a broader central-bank pivot away from explicit forward guidance, with the ECB's Lagarde and the BoE's Bailey also signaling the same shift on the same panel.
A public ultimatum from the president is political theater, not policy, but it lands with operators already running on thin margins and into an election-year inflation fight.
A six-day spot ETF redemption streak worth $696M on June 25, colliding with sticky 3.4% core PCE, has analysts arguing the cycle floor may not be in yet.
A 19 million barrel daily transit print would re-rate one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, and any sustained jump in Hormuz throughput has direct second-order consequences for crude,…
The oil curve is already pricing in normalization, but the CPI data that confirms it does not arrive until August and PCE not until September 30, leaving the FOMC to lean hawkish through a…
Falling oil prices typically ease inflation pressure and boost consumer spending power, giving the Fed more room to hold or cut rates.
Nine of 18 FOMC officials now project at least one rate hike this year, a shift that reframes the policy outlook from 'on hold' to 'next move may be up.'
Kevin Warsh chairs his first Federal Reserve policy meeting today, with the funds rate fully priced to hold at…
New Fed chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first FOMC meeting and press conference on June 17, the same week a reported…
Macro position trader Jason Pizzino told the Altcoin Daily channel he expects the next downturn to rival 2008 in…