Bitcoin has closed back below the bear market resistance band, a technical level that has acted as a ceiling during previous bear cycles in 2018 and 2022. The pattern is familiar: BTC rallies above the band briefly, tags the 200-day moving average, and then gets rejected — a sequence that has now repeated once again.
Analysts tracking the 2018 playbook see a recognizable structure forming: a February low, a higher low in late March/early April, a lower high in May, and then a grind lower. The near-term base case being floated is a test of the $70K level, a brief bounce off that support, and then a return toward the February lows — mirroring how Bitcoin bounced at $7,000 in mid-2018 before volatility dried up heading into Q4.
The bear market resistance band has now flipped back to resistance. Until BTC can reclaim and hold above it with conviction, the structural read remains cautious — rallies are likely to be sold, not chased.
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