CryptoSlate
Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $82,775.94 after US economic releases offered conflicting signals on rates. August job openings edged down to 7.1 million, but September consumer confidence dropped to 81.9 as more households expected higher rates and inflation.
Why it matters
The labor data point to modest cooling, not a sharp deterioration that would clearly change the outlook for interest rates. The Conference Board's Expectations Index fell for a third consecutive month to 63.6. Meanwhile, 68.4% of consumers expected rates to rise over the next 12 months, up 5.2%, and average expected inflation reached 6.1%. The median inflation expectation was 5.1%, with both measures up 0.3 percentage points from August.
The survey covered Sept. 1-23, including the Federal Reserve's Sept. 16 rate increase to a 3.75%-4.00% target range. The indicators describe different pressures and do not establish why Bitcoin fell. They do, however, complicate the case that softer hiring will quickly bring down yields.
Market impact
Treasury data put the 10-year yield at 5.24% and the two-year at 4.92% on Sept. 28, before Tuesday's releases. Those yields offer income, unlike Bitcoin, so lower rates could reduce competition for the asset if inflation also cools. Bitcoin's recovery above $84,000 depends on that yield path and evidence of renewed demand.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $31 million in net inflows on Sept. 28, less than each of the five preceding completed sessions. The next tests are August PCE inflation data, due Sept. 30, and the September employment report, due Oct. 2. Cooler inflation alongside orderly hiring, falling yields and stronger completed ETF flows would improve the recovery case. Hot inflation or persistently high yields would weaken it; a sharp jobs slowdown could bring its own risks.
Frequently asked questions
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How low did Bitcoin fall after the US economic releases?
Bitcoin registered an intraday low of $82,775.94. A move back above $84,000 depends on the path of yields and evidence of new demand.
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What did September consumers expect for inflation and interest rates?
Average expected inflation over the next 12 months rose to 6.1%, and the median reached 5.1%. A total of 68.4% expected higher interest rates.
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Why did easing job openings not settle the outlook for Bitcoin?
Openings fell to 7.1 million, but consumer expectations for inflation and rates rose. The mixed signals did not establish that yields would fall.
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How large were recent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows?
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $31 million in net inflows on Sept. 28, less than each of the five preceding completed sessions.
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Which upcoming US releases could affect Bitcoin's recovery outlook?
August PCE inflation data are scheduled for Sept. 30, followed by the September employment report on Oct. 2. Their implications for yields and ETF demand are key factors.
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