Analyst Benjamin Cowen is mapping out a two-correction scenario for the S&P 500 through the rest of 2026, anchored to an S&P/M2 fractal pattern he's tracked since 1996. His base case: a smaller pullback sometime in June or July, followed by a rebound, and then a more significant decline beginning in September or early Q4 — a rhythm he says mirrors midterm-year patterns seen in 2018 and 2022.
On the labor market, Cowen notes that while unemployment is rising across a growing number of states, it hasn't yet spread to the whole country the way it did in prior recessions — leaving enough pockets of optimism for the market to keep climbing its wall of worry. Initial claims remain low, and without a feedback loop in the labor market, he sees no sufficient reason for the market to break down structurally just yet.
The read for crypto is less comfortable.
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