CryptoSlate
Bitcoin aged one year or more moved more than 4 million BTC on-chain during 2024 and roughly half that total in 2025, but the figure has slipped below 2 million so far in 2026, according to Galaxy Research charts shared by Galaxy's Alex Thorn. He reads the slowdown as evidence that the cycle's "Great Distribution," the wave of dormant supply awakened during the 2024-2025 rally, has largely run its course. Coinbase's roughly $69.5 billion internal wallet migration this year underscored why raw age-based readings can mislead, since large internal reshuffles distort the signal unless exchanges and custodial churn are filtered out.
Why it matters
Galaxy's chart and Glassnode's long-term-holder series are looking at the same market from two different ages. Galaxy starts the clock at one year or more, Glassnode at roughly 155 days, which means a Bitcoin bought in September 2025 can already be sitting inside Glassnode's long-term-holder loss data while remaining completely outside Galaxy's old-coin awakening dataset. The gap matters because realized losses among long-term holders in 2026 may belong to 2025 buyers rather than to the older cohort that created the original distribution. Profit-taking by long-term holders has nearly disappeared, and realized losses now account for most of what little long-term-holder selling remains.
Market impact
Glassnode puts the short-term-holder cost basis near $69,000, the aggregate acquisition price for recent buyers and the line that divides the cohort between profit and loss. Bitcoin currently trades in the mid-$60,000s, close enough to make that level a live test. A convincing reclaim would push most recent buyers back into profit and cool the forces feeding further loss realization. A rejection keeps the same cohort underwater, with the conditions for capitulation still in place. ETF inflows have arrived only in scattered bursts so far, well short of the sustained run needed to confirm that real demand has returned, while the unwind in derivatives positioning still needs real spot buying to back it up.
Frequently asked questions
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What does Galaxy's old-coin awakening chart show for 2026?
Bitcoin aged one year or more moved more than 4 million BTC on-chain in 2024 and roughly half that total in 2025. The figure has slipped below 2 million so far in 2026, the sharpest slowdown in two years.
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Why do Galaxy and Glassnode long-term-holder data tell different stories?
Galaxy's threshold is one year or more, while Glassnode's long-term-holder window sits near 155 days. A coin bought in September 2025 can already appear in Glassnode's loss data without yet registering in Galaxy's old-coin dataset.
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What is the short-term-holder cost basis near $69,000?
Glassnode puts the aggregate acquisition price for short-term holders near $69,000, the level dividing recent buyers between profit and loss. Bitcoin trading in the mid-$60,000s puts that cost basis within reach as a near-term test.
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What happens if Bitcoin reclaims $69,000 versus rejects it?
A convincing reclaim would push most recent buyers back into profit and cool further loss realization. A rejection keeps that cohort underwater, with the conditions for renewed capitulation still fully in place.
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Why have ETF inflows not confirmed real demand has returned?
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows so far have appeared only in short, scattered bursts, well short of the sustained run needed to confirm durable demand. The derivatives unwind similarly still needs real spot buying to back it up.
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