CoinDesk
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 0.24 according to BitBo data, sitting just above the upper boundary of the historical "green zone" that has marked every major cycle bottom since 2011. The metric compares market value against realized value — the average price of every bitcoin at its last on-chain transaction — and a Z-Score at or below zero has historically signaled that BTC is cheap relative to its own history.
The pattern is consistent across four cycles: 2011-2012, 2014, late 2018 and the second half of 2022, when the Z-Score touched or briefly dipped below zero and each instance marked the floor that launched the next major bull run. The 2022 signal in particular preceded a three-year rally.
Why it matters
The Z-Score is designed to cut through the noise of daily price action and show where BTC sits in the broader cycle — high readings mean the market is running hot, low or sub-zero readings mean the opposite. Reaching the green zone doesn't identify a price level; it identifies a statistical condition that has preceded major recoveries in every prior cycle. After last week's selloff wiped roughly $390 billion from crypto's total market capitalization, that condition is now in view.
Market impact
The caveat is real: long-term holder MVRV (coins held 155+ days) still sits at 1.29, while short-term holder MVRV (under 155 days) is at 0.84. Historically, convergence between those two cohorts has marked the absolute cycle low — seen in 2015, 2019 and 2022 — and the gap has not closed yet. That suggests further downside may still be needed before a textbook bear market bottom is in, even as the headline indicator flashes the first signs of compression toward fair value.
Frequently asked questions
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What is Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score and why does it matter now?
It compares BTC's market value against its realized value (the average price at each coin's last on-chain move). A Z-Score near or below zero has historically marked cycle bottoms — BitBo puts the current reading at 0.24, right at the edge of that zone.
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Has the MVRV Z-Score actually marked every prior Bitcoin bottom?
Yes — the Z-Score touched or briefly dipped below zero at the lows of 2011-2012, 2014, late 2018 and the second half of 2022. The 2022 reading preceded a three-year bull run.
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Why isn't this called a confirmed bottom yet?
Long-term holder MVRV (1.29) and short-term holder MVRV (0.84) haven't converged. That convergence marked absolute cycle lows in 2015, 2019 and 2022, so further downside may still be needed.
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What does the 'green zone' on the MVRV chart actually mean?
It's the band around and slightly below zero where BTC's market price is statistically close to or below its realized fair value. It is not a price level — it is a measure of how stretched or compressed BTC is relative to its own history.
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How bad was last week's selloff that preceded this signal?
Crypto shed roughly $390 billion in market capitalization in the worst weekly rout since the FTX collapse, which compressed the Z-Score from elevated levels down toward the historical bottom zone.
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