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Bitcoin's short-term traders are sitting on a 33% unrealized profit margin, its highest in 21 months, CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno said. Holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit on Sept. 22, the largest single-day total of 2026, while spot demand contracted by 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days.
Why it matters
The readings point to a market where gains are available to lock in as new demand cools. CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Score Index remains at 90 out of 100, and Bitcoin's close above its 365-day moving average last week confirmed a new bull market, Moreno said. But the research firm sees signs that the rally is losing momentum after Bitcoin reached $87,400, an eight-month high.
Selling signals extend beyond Bitcoin. Seven-day cumulative altcoin inflow transactions rose to 76,000, their highest level since Oct. 17, 2025, while addresses depositing altcoins on exchanges reached 51,000, also the highest since October 2025. Moreno said the rise was broad rather than driven by a handful of large wallets. Exchange transfers can indicate intent to sell, though they do not confirm that a sale has taken place.
Market impact
Futures demand growth, which Moreno described as the main driver of the rally, slowed from 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 BTC on Sept. 29. With spot demand also contracting, CryptoQuant says extending the rally may be harder without fresh buying.
If Bitcoin pulls back, Moreno identifies the 365-day moving average near $80,000 as first support, followed by the 200-day average near $71,000 and the trader onchain realized price around $67,000. He characterizes a move toward those levels as healthy consolidation within a young bull market, provided support holds, rather than a confirmed reversal.
Frequently asked questions
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Why does CryptoQuant see higher near-term correction risk for Bitcoin?
Short-term traders' unrealized profit margin reached 33%, while holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit on Sept. 22. CryptoQuant also cited cooling spot and futures demand.
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How much has Bitcoin spot demand contracted?
CryptoQuant said apparent spot demand contracted by 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days.
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What happened to speculative futures demand growth?
It slowed from 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 BTC on Sept. 29, according to Julio Moreno.
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Which Bitcoin price levels does CryptoQuant identify as support?
Moreno cited the 365-day moving average near $80,000, the 200-day average near $71,000 and the trader onchain realized price around $67,000.
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Would a Bitcoin pullback necessarily mean the bull market has ended?
No. Moreno characterized a correction toward the cited support levels as healthy consolidation within a young bull market, provided those levels hold.
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