CryptoSlate
Bitcoin's push back above $65,000 stalled almost immediately, with the asset retreating under $63,000 after long-term and short-term holders both used the rebound to sell. CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin has traded below the realized price of the 18-month-to-two-year UTXO cohort since early June, with that moving cost basis now near $80,800, leaving a large slice of older holders underwater. Glassnode noted that more than 65% of exchange inflows are now attributable to long-term holders realizing losses, a pattern consistent with prior bear phases. Meanwhile, investors who accumulated near the June lows are taking profits at volumes last seen around the May peak, with Bitcoin still capped below the short-term holder cost basis near $69,000.
Why it matters
The overlap is what turns the chart ugly. A break-even cohort at $69,000 sits almost exactly where Deribit shows roughly $4.5 billion in Bitcoin call open interest stacked across the $70,000, $72,000, $75,000 and $80,000 strikes. Recent buyers returning to flat and options market makers hedging into a heavy call corridor create two reinforcing supply sources at the same level. On the other side, 30-day combined flows for BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC have still averaged more than 1,250 BTC of net outflows per day, per Glassnode, so the bid has not yet widened enough to absorb that pressure. Put open interest of about $1 billion at $60,000 and $840 million at $50,000 keeps a downside corridor just as well-defined.
Market impact
There are tentative counter-signals. US spot Bitcoin ETFs just strung together three positive sessions totaling $367.8 million, clawing back roughly 87% of Monday's $424 million outflow, and CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Regime Score has climbed to 34.7 from -42.9 on June 26, with Regime Confidence rising to 79.4%. Long-term holder realized-loss volume has begun to roll over from its recent high, a pattern that preceded firmer floors in past bear cycles. Until those signals firm up into a sustained move, Bitcoin stays trapped between recovering demand and supply that surfaces on every rally, with a failed $70,000 retest likely to refocus attention on the $60,000 support zone.
Frequently asked questions
-
Why is Bitcoin struggling to hold above $65,000?
Both long-term and short-term holders are selling into the rebound. Glassnode data shows more than 65% of exchange inflows now come from long-term holders realizing losses, while investors who bought the June lows are taking profits at volumes last seen around the May peak.
-
What is the $69,000 level's significance for Bitcoin?
It is roughly where the short-term holder cost basis sits, meaning recent buyers would return to break even. The level also sits just below a heavy concentration of Deribit call open interest at the $70,000, $72,000, $75,000 and $80,000 strikes, totaling nearly $4.5 billion.
-
How much call open interest is stacked above Bitcoin's current price?
Deribit data shows about $1.6 billion in Bitcoin call open interest at the $70,000 strike, $1 billion at $72,000, $686 million at $75,000 and another $1.2 billion at $80,000, a combined corridor of nearly $4.5 billion.
-
Are US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing inflows or outflows?
The recent three sessions have been positive, totaling $367.8 million in net inflows, clawing back roughly 87% of Monday's $424 million outflow. Over the past 30 days, though, BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC combined have still averaged more than 1,250 BTC of net outflows per day, per Glassnode.
-
What is the Bitcoin Regime Score and what does it signal now?
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler's Regime Score blends taker flows, open interest pressure, funding rates, ETF activity, exchange flows and price trend on a -100 to +100 scale. It has climbed to 34.7 from -42.9 on June 26, with Regime Confidence at 79.4%, just below the model's 80% high-confidence threshold.
CoinDesk
Whale Alert
Crypto News
Lookonchain
WuBlockchain