Bitcoin is pressing its 200-day moving average again, and Into the Cryptoverse is still calling the current advance a counter-trend rally inside a broader bear market. The channel's framing rests on the 2014, 2018, 2022 and even 2019 tape: in each cycle, Bitcoin's post-February low bounce stalled near the 200-day MA or the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, and every prior midterm-year rally ultimately rolled over into a deeper low. The 2014 cycle is the closest analogue — Bitcoin briefly cleared the 200-day in June, held above it for roughly a month, and then handed the move back.
Why it matters
The argument leans on three structural parallels. First, prior bear-market drawdowns from the high all clustered in a 52–53% range before the counter-trend bounce, which is roughly what the October 2025 top delivered. Second, the 2019 comparison lines up cleanly: Bitcoin topped about two months before quantitative tightening ended, QT ended in August, and the asset then put in a 52–53% drop before rallying. This cycle, Bitcoin topped in October and QT ended in December — same two-month lead. Third, monthly Heikin Ashi candles briefly turned green in both 2014 and 2019 mid-bear, but stayed red throughout 2018 and 2022. A green monthly close this cycle would, in the channel's view, start to draw uncomfortable resemblance to the 2014/2019 path.
Market impact
If Bitcoin does push through the 200-day, the channel's next marker is the 0.382 fib off the all-time high, which sits near $85K. The 2014 and 2018 rallies both stalled at that level after briefly tagging the 200-day. The 2019 analogue is the more dangerous case — that rally ultimately extended all the way back toward the prior high, which in this cycle would put Bitcoin in the $90Ks. The channel's base case is a Q4 rollover into a lower low, mirroring how Bitcoin rallied into Q4 2025, and the preferred trade is to be elsewhere — index funds, energy, gold, silver — which have all outperformed Bitcoin on a relative basis year-to-date, with Bitcoin down 14–15% against the S&P 500, 13–14% against gold and roughly 27–28% against energy.
The honest caveat the channel flags: 2019 is the cycle that breaks the pattern, and the tape has been tracking the 2019 overlay closely. If the 2019 analogue continues to hold, the rally has another two to three weeks of runway before a potential June turn, putting the next major low somewhere in October.
Frequently asked questions
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Why does Into the Cryptoverse think Bitcoin is still in a bear market?
The channel's base case rests on the 2014, 2018, 2022 and 2019 tape, where every midterm-year counter-trend rally stalled near the 200-day MA or the 0.382 fib and eventually rolled over into a lower low.
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What levels matter if Bitcoin breaks the 200-day moving average?
The next marker is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement off the all-time high, which sits near $85K. That is where the 2014 and 2018 rallies ultimately stalled after a brief tag of the 200-day.
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How does the 2019 cycle comparison affect the outlook?
In 2019, Bitcoin topped about two months before QT ended and then dropped 52–53% before rallying, and that rally ultimately extended all the way back to the prior high. The current cycle has tracked that overlay closely, which is why a push into the $90Ks is on the table.
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When does the channel expect a potential market turn?
The channel flags June as the historical pivot window — rallies into June marked highs in 2014 and 2019, while selloffs into June marked lows in 2018 and 2022. If the rally extends into June, the next major low is expected in October.
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What is the channel's preferred positioning outside of Bitcoin?
The channel prefers index funds, energy, gold and silver. Bitcoin is down 14–15% against the S&P 500, 13–14% against gold and roughly 27–28% against energy year-to-date, making the relative-value case for fading BTC this year.
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